Monday Monday Morning

Essentially, my view for the week ahead is that we may get a final shake out 650 intermediate-term bottom on the indices, or we might not. I suspect that the multiple divergences are indicating just that, and longer-term buyers (Buffet, Grantham, etc. are stepping in, as retail 401Ks cash out. I think that we will have a lot of chop this week and my big rule is to NOT let go of a position* at a terrible price because it will probably come around for me to at least break even.

*As long as it is not a March Option

1. Lots of divergences in the market.

2. Bottom close at hand?

3. PUT-CALL RATIO SIGNALLING TOP!!!

3. Good to be in calls and puts. Or up and down trades of some sort. And get out quickly. Opportunities on both sides.

4. Any up, sell. Any down, buy.

5. Use 3 X ETFs.

6. Get out of March longs on Monday, if possible.

7. Feel free to buy April calls around 700.

8. 710-740/750 range for Monday-Tuesday? Short 750?

9. Collapse possible. Buy Puts. Buy inverse ETFs. Buy some SSO 17 Puts on Monday. Or find another good chart for Puts.

1. Don't over trade.

2. Always have a plan before each trade.

3. Always sell/buy the morning excitement.

Wednesday

And week ahead.

People turning bullish.

Not me.

Looking for 785 to short.

Maybe 805. Probably not.

Long at 750 for a quickie, maybe.

Play two. Not many.

BGU, VIX,

Sunday

Monday 11:04 a.m. update:
Market is very weak. No up volume.

1. Read Thursday post for SHORT IDEAS.

2. Long until 805.

3. DRYS

4. Buy VIX at or below $48.

5. Get out of SLV. Buy back March's cheap. Sell July's expensive. 2 at a time.

Thurday

Long (somewhat) until 805. From 800 and up, start shorting with all your cojones.

OTM Puts on

April Qs

April COCO

April SPWRA

April XLF / FAZ

April EAD

AZO!

IYR, DRR

Wednesday

Sell Orders:
1. Get out of SLV at 1.55.

2. Out of UYG longs 0.45.

3. Out of 2 IYR sold Feb$28 Puts at $1.55 or 1.6. (Market 1.8). Open interest at $27 strike is very high. Might be able to buy back for $1.45 or so on Thursday.

4. Watch SLV, BWLD, CBRL, GLD.

5. Out of sold March Q 29 calls on Qs to 29.60 OR any bounce tomorrow or Thursday.

6. Weds 780-798

Thurs 790-805

Fri 790-805- 785 close.

Consolidate then fall. No complete gap fill.

Tuesday - Week ahead

Week (Best case for me): Fall then rally. Tuesday - Weds fall and test 750-770. Thurs - Fri rally.

Tuesday (Best case): down to 10, up to 10:30, down again to 790.

1. Sell out ALL? at 10 a.m. Watch for direction. Re enter at 10:30 a.m.

2. IYR is the best Short. 30 is great resistance. Qs will also be great.

3. IWM has been falling much less than SPX. Selling the Feb 43s has been very profitable, and may continue to stay profitable.

4. 10 a.m. Sells:
--Sell one IYR Feb for $125- 135.

-- Sell June IYR 28-26 spread.

-- Sell all calls on the Qs at 29.70.

-- Consider getting out of IWM and investing in the Qs or POT.

-- Cash is an awesome position. Find the best sector/stocks first.

Moo's lesson

Market Commentary

Class A bullish divergences occur when prices reach a new low but an oscillator reaches a higher bottom than it reached during its previous decline.

This is clearly demonstrated on the 15min & 60min charts RSI(14) & MACD(12,2,9) Also, once we took out /ES 825, a new short term trend was created imo.

i'm looking for 300-400 point move in the DOW today. Class A bullish divergences are often the best signals of an impending sharp rally. no positions over night. Which ever sector is the leader, I will take the corresponding ETF position with leverage.

2/12 Update

1. Vix forming a beautiful triangle on the daily chart. I think it will break up, when it is complete.
2. NAS against the ol 1250-1280 resistance. We haven't yet ever broken out of this zone since we entered it on 11/17 last year.
3. $NY50R confirms that we are headed down. This would be true even if we have an up day tomorrow.
4. $NYMO down. Forming a nice triangle, which I think will break down.
5. $NYSI - Look at the RSI, MACD and Stochs. Confirm down.
6. $ NYUDStill very strong negative divergence on 5 and 20 DMA.
7. SPX DAILY Stochs and CCI nowhere close to oversold. And all charts Daily Stochs are pointed down.
8. Yen Stochs still bearish (IMO).
Gold stocks may be forming a bull flag.

This is a fake out. We are going DOWN. Tuesday - Wednesday we test the November lows, we bounce off for Opex, then after Opex we go below. My 2 cents.

2/10 - Nice Day today - and Future

1. Tomorrow maybe bullish -- maybe up to 836 - 840 before down.
2. 2-3 week view is Bearish.
3. 2-3 month view is Bearish.


- NY50R - 50 DMA shows negative divergence. This is bad medium-term.

- NY50R has crossed 5 DMA on the downside. This is bad

- NYUD 20 DMA is turning down and shows negative divergence.

- VIX trend change to up. Crossed 5 DMA, Stochs bullish cross. This is bad, medium term.

- We will likely go up to 836 or so tomorrow. It is important to use the high to buy back Feb Puts.

- Sell one or two March Puts around 825, early in the a.m., if at all possible. Buy back 3 Feb Puts. Don't worry about the near-term. We are going down.

- If you can't sell March Puts low, sell them high and immediately buy back Febs.

- You could sell the AZO, if necc.

- Set Limit orders for tomorrow, bef. you go to bed.

Monday - and the Week head!

Monday - may be a down day.

Tuesday - Thursday the rally may continue.

After that, the big fall in Opex week?

More Mistakes

1. Did Opposite of my MAIN plan.  SPX calls.  Fought the market at its highs.

2. Lost Money.

3.  Don't keep fighting.

4.  Find the flow and then go with the flow. 

Long Now/ FAS, FAZ

Tomorrow's Plan

1. Sell AZO 130s on any Dips.

2. Buy back 1 more AZO 120 on high.

3. Leave 1-1 Put spread in place for now.

4. Buy SPX March Calls on any Dips.

5. Sell SPX Feb Calls on any HIGHS.

6. Look at ERX and XLE.

DID OPPOSITE OF LAST THREE ABOVE.  FOUGHT MARKET.  LOST MONEY.

Ways to Play FAS, FAZ.

You could play these exclusively.

1. Find direction using XLF chart. Wait until you are sure.

2. Enter one position. In order to exit, use other one. In order to double down, short other...

Short anywhere close to 830.

830 will be a gift.

Go half and wait for confirmation. Use your excellent new risk management.

NYA 50R and Daily TICK 5DMA are both in Sell Mode. NY up-down volume is horrible. Short any rally.

1. SPX Puts.

2. AZO Puts.

3. QLD Puts/ QID Calls/ Q Puts.

4. ?

Master Shake on Slope of Hope

The intraday tape will f--- you up unless you are confident of the longer time frame first.

The 5-minute tape can help you get a good entry, but it has been very noisy recently.

Case in point: the early morning rally. 850 has been a safe short entry for the last three weeks. It was today, too. It was pretty hard to tell that from the tape....other than the fact that it was a little overdone.

VERY GREAT SWING INDICATOR 2 - DAILY TICK 5DMA!!

5 DMA DAILY TICK

1. When 5 DMA crosses 0 (ZERO), GO SHORT, LONG.

2.If 5 DMA touches and reverses, follow the 5 DMA.

GREAT SWING INDICATOR 1

NYA50R - PERCENT OF STOCKS OVER 50DMA

Like any SWING indicator, this works very well in a trending market. In a range-bound market, if the range is very small, you may not make much money.

1. When signal line crosses 5 DMA, go SHORT/LONG.

2. If 5 DMA goes follows signal line UP or DOWN, you haveconfirmation. Go 2 X SHORT/ LONG.

3. If 5 DMA crosses 20 DMA, double confirmation. Go 4 X SHORT/LONG.

4. When signal line crosses 5 DMA in reverse direction, STOP OUT.

2/2 Plan

1. Position for collapse. Within this week or next, we will fall.

2. Scottrade? Trades will take a few days to clear. When to transfer funds to TOS? When to close Scottrade?

3. Gold is falling. Hold DZZ till later today?

4. Get out of Oil after market open.