Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Monday Monday Morning

- I think we will see a top today. We may have a breakout above 888, but I don't know if that is likely.

Bullish:

1. Brinkley is ST to MT bullish; she sees lots of bullish charts.
2. Tim Knight is long commodities. Also long junk.
3. Carl Swenlin issued a medium-term buy signal.
4. SPX H and S officially broken. New highs. 900 likely today.
5. Bonds down, falling through the floor (debt financing). USD not bullish.


Bearish:
- $NAUD short-term sell signal Thursday.
- Put-call ratio short-term sell signal Thursday.
-Tape was down on Friday, until painting at the end.
- Last two days; IWM trailing SPX.

940 looks likely. Trend through Opex may be up. Tuesday will decide. A pullback is sorely due, to old trading range? 886 should provide support. Let loose FAS Puts at top of old trading range? Buy more puts at 900?