Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Nenner

I like what I see of Nenner's model.

Evidently, he has two ways of making predictions: sunspots and technical analysis. When both align, he makes a call.

Right now, his major predictions are:

1. Silver and Gold up in 2011 to new highs.

2. Equities up for next 2-3 months. November 30 was a good time to buy. (I did!)

3. U.S. will double dip and we will see Dow 5000 in the next 2-3 years. India and China will not feel the double dip. We will start to see this fall after 2-3 months.

4. The strength of India and China will determine how the U.S. and Europe pull out of the double dip.

5. India and China will lead for the next 100 years.

6. U.S. Housing market woes are not over. The U.S. is following Japan's path.
(I'm not sure about this last one, because the U.S. is still increasing in population.)

7. War/global catastrophe in end 2012, beginning 2013.

8. USD will be strong in 2011. We have seen the top in the JPYUSD.

Trade Update

Doubled down ZSL a few days ago - at 12.7, sold at 13.7 and 12.8 for small profit.

Bought EDC at 33.5; sold at 36.35. Will look to get in again soon.

Will go long AGQ today.

Still long UNG.