Win's Way: May 2012

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Friday, May 18, 2012

Bought AAPL July calls; TNA calls at TNA 46.2

Will sell on a bounce. Playing defense.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

IWM:SPY and RSP:SPY

http://scharts.co/IWCMjb

http://scharts.co/IWH3TJ

Many other charts showing strong breadth divergences.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Buying Opportunity of the Year

How can everyone not see this? I know all the smart people do. Chart below.

http://scharts.co/L1I7bw

Friday, May 4, 2012

Very typically confusing Wave 4, this. We've got a very scary looking inverse H&S on VIX. SOX (a kind of AWACs for me, now that TNX and TLT are broken) was very weak yesterday. On the other hand, we also have some positive divergence on the 60 minute TNX chart (MACD).

I know I said TNX was broken, but I mean that it is no longer a tell on the daily. Because of the frequent bond buying by the Fed it is no longer possible to say whether a trend is arising because of fear in the market or the Fed's buying. On the hourly, I still like to look at it.

AAPL also looks like it has a bullish IHS forming.

Finally, and significantly, there is positive breath divergence at the recent 1411 SPX high (with the earlier 1430 high). Look at this $NYAD chart: http://scharts.co/IL4YrY.

I am swing long, but nervous. This has been a tiresome Wave 4. In future, I will try to just sit these out in my swing trading.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

May 10

By May 10, barring a natural disaster of some such event, my accounts will be up at least another 20% from current levels. All trades have been posted here, and it is still possible to buy all my buys for good prices.

Edit: This was yesterday's post. After the close yesterday, I'm still long (couldn't really trade intraday so had no choice), but a little more nervous. Full moon this weekend suggests we might see a bottom today or Monday.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Bought TNA 57.24; SOXL 37.1, AAPL call 584

SOXL bought yesterday. TNA bought today.

These are all swing trades.

Sold some TSL at 7.8 yesterday; Will buy more at 7.4 to 7.5 range.

Sold YGE at 3.8. May buy more at lower prices.

Bought AAPL June 620 calls at AAPL 584. first target 620; then 660.

Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way