Week of 10/26

New Post. Let's try this again.

Silver has broken out from TL, along with Gold and GDX. This is a strong break, including on the weekly chart. I would expect a little consolidation then shoot up.

Will sell some longs at $18.10 and try to buy more around $17.8- 17.9. If Gold hits 1600, as I expect it will, silver target could be $29 or so based upon a Gold:Silver ratio of 55.

A few warnings:

The most important chart to watch here is the DXY, which has not broken its TL and has intact bounced strongly off an up sloping TL.

This strength in GDX, GLD, SLV was all because of the dropping dollar. So if there is to be more strength in the metals, it would be nice to see DXY pause or break that TL to the downside.

Also, SPX is breaking out (the leaders already have). It's rare to see the metals rise with SPX and the dollar.

Conclusion: Don't go over crazy on SLV longs just yet. Expect consolidation of breakout at the least. Silver should bounce in the 17.85 to 18.45 (50% retrace of the drop) range 

2/4/16

/ES day range 1870 - 1910. Sell 1910 swing.

2/3/16

/ES day range 1890 to 1917.

Sell 1915 swing.

2/2/2016

Tuesday /ES Range is 1890 - 1925.

Buy 1900 swing. Sell 1925 day.

Monday, 2/1/2016

/ES Daily Range - 1915 - 1950

sell 1936 (day), 1946 (day), and then 1949 (day)

Buy 1915 (day) and 1900 (swing).

Roadmap

We are nearing a minor, ST top in the market, which may have come today, or will come on Monday, December 2, around SPX 1820.

After this top, NFLX should come down to 350, RUT to 1120 to 1130, AAPL to 540-545. This will be a buying opportunity. SPX 1785 would be a gift.

After the bottom, NFLX is going to 400 (or thereabouts), and RUT to 1160, SPX to 1900-1910, and AAPL to 565-570. At that point, we should have a major top.

I am short NFLX (at around $364.5) and AAPL ($456) via puts. I plan to cover at the above-mentioned targets and go lightly long.

Short IWM and GDX since 1050 Russell, 29.7 GDX.

First targets 980 Russell and 26.5 - 27 on GDX.

I plan to go long AAPL at 475-484.

PMs Not Acting Well

I will get out of PM longs within a day or so and consider shorting.

Looking at the weekly chart, the current multiple-week advance in miners looks like a bear flag.

LT view

The SPX is in the beginning stages of a medium-term advance.

I know this must sound totally weird, as many people think that we are toward the end of long bull market advance, that began in March 2009.

However, the breadth readings we are seeing in this advance, the fact that international markets are soaring with us (the DAX, FXI and BSE) now suggest that this advance is for real, and will, in the medium-term (6 months) probably lead to all-time highs in many markets. The RUT has already hit all time highs.

The Dow should hit 14700 and the SPX 1590 or so.

Having said that, in the short term, this advance needs a correction.

I am lightly short equities (with SOX) and long PMs (NUGT).  I will also try to short via FAZ tomorrow.  I am looking for a drop, ideally to around 1430 SPX to go long again. Hopefully we won't go lower than that.

I am also looking for a small correction to go long Silver via AGQ. This would be an intermediate term long, based upon a bull flag on the MONTHLY chart.

Happy new year!

Cautiously long PMs

I know, I know, I said PMs were F-ed. But price action is king. What do I know.

We'll wait and watch.

Also, I am going long the Qs during this consolidation. I will be looking for a top in the SP 1480 - 1520 range.

Sold all SCTY at 15.75.