2.
Lessons
1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.
2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.
3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.
4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!
5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.
6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.
7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Tuesday
SPX Range 785 - 810
Open 795
Low 785
High 810
1. Close IWM Puts at 1.07 and .83.
2. Hold sold IWM puts if possible.
3. Buy more OTM IWM May calls.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
Tuesday
1. Near a ST top. Time to go short.
2. Start writing. Doing more stimulating stuff.
3. Today - open will be down; then attempted climb; then down close. Could even be trend down day with straight down after 10 - 11 a.m. rise.
4. Consolidation day, they will say. Right. Down to 760 eventually at least. Look at $CPC:$SPY. Look at overhead resistance for banks.
5. Keep some FAZ as hedge. Consider going long IWM or semis (BRCM, INTC) on weakness.
Tuesday FAZ 19.7 - 25?
Wednesday FAZ 22 - 26
Thursday FAZ ?
Friday
Tuesday Plan
1. Sell 100 FAZ at 10:00 a.m. for $21-22. Buy 3 FAS calls sold.
2. Sell FAS at 11:00 a.m. Buy 2 FAZ calls sold.
3. Sell 100-150 more FAZ later in the day at $25?
4. Sell all FAZ at $28 on Wednesday.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Monday the 23rd of March
1. The trend is still down until at least ES (futures) 750. Then we can get a bit of a bounce. Look at the Fibs. Could easily go down to 735 or so. (50% retrace).
2. Monday range prediction: ES 750 - 772. Sell FAS in the morning at 5.2 or so. Sell FAZ at ES 750.
3. Start buying May or June IWM calls around 740-750 ES. 3 calls maybe. Cover with Aprils on a bounce.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Monday Morning
-- Short IWM or Qs on any strength. Whichever is stronger.
-- We will get a bounce, but at some point, we will come back down. Qs have not yet come down.
-- Not done.
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