Win's Way: September 2010

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, September 17, 2010

ES, EURUSD

Just added last bit of BGZ at ES 1123.

Still looking to add last EURUSD shorts at 1.3055 and 1.308.

Trade Update

Out of AUDUSD yesterday at .925 for small profit.

Added to EURUSD short at 1.308. Looking to add last tranche at 1.318 or so.

Looking to add last tranche of BGZ at ES 1130.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Hmmm....

1. On the one hand breath is amazing, indicating that there will be follow through HIGHER.

2. On the other hand, TRIN is showing incredibly overbought levels on the 5 and 10 MAs.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Added Shorts at ES 1122, AUDUSD .943, SLV 20 (Silver 20.4) and EURUSD 1.3

Now short at the following average prices:

ES 1118

AUDUSD .933

SLV $19.8

EURUSD 1.29

Plan to cover around the following:

ES 1107

AUDUSD .918 CORRected .925

SLV 19.5

Monday, September 13, 2010

Change of Mind

We are at least 20 SPX points from a major top. I expect a higher high tomorrow, followed by a 20 point pull back.

Perhaps 30 points from a top. And 3 weeks away as well. EURUSD will go to 1.299 or so.

Breadth and volume are strong.

I will cover at the coming pull back and try to short again around 1130-1140.

Short ES (1115) via BGZ; AUDUSD at .9328; EURUSD at 1.282

Sunday, September 12, 2010

The Big Picture Remains the Same

Compare the charts of MSWorld Index to the Copper Index. Compare the 200 Day moving averages.

In the medium-term, that's all you need. The SP 500 is going to 950. Copper and basic materials are going up.

Friday, September 10, 2010

BIG Move in the $, Equities, Bonds coming

TLT will fall to $100. SPX should rise to 1115-1130 range. EURUSD to 1.28 or so and AUDUSD to 0.9340 or so. That is a big time short equities and risk assets zone.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Short Silver; Will Try to Short SP tomorrow 50% of position

Went short today at open (1105 ES) and covered at 1099.

Already short Silver Via Puts at $20.00.

Bull Markets End on Good News

1110 may be it for now. Pull back, then 1120- 1140?

I will short today and again at 1120-1140 zone.

The Euro is Done

As I see it from price action, the Euro is done with its upward climb. 1.278 or 1.282 still possible. But we should be looking to short.

ES 1130-40 is short zone.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Selling Longs Today

I am still long EEM (Dec calls), short bonds (TYO) and long EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. Sorry I didn't get to post the last few trades. Have been slammed at work - 12 hour shifts.

I will sell some longs/ bond shorts today and Monday around 1105-6 on the ES. I will buy back equity longs and bond shorts around 1088 ES.

Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way