Best Guess

SPX goes up to 1375 - marginal new highs - before fall. This happens around May 25.

Then we get another fall to SPX 1220-1250 or so.

I may buy a small position around SPX 1328, if we see it tomorrow. Strictly ST trade. Stop 1320.

Sold EDC, BGU, QQQ calls today.

ST Bullish; IT not sure; LT bullish

I am very short-term bullish. (3-5 days).

Beyond that, I am not sure.

Intermediate-term, I am not sure. We may need to go back to the 2007 highs on the QQQs and NDX before further upside. That is another 3-6% down.

I am long the QQQs, BGU and EDC until resistance.

I plan to short the EURO at 1.44. It may get to 1.45 or so before falling further.

Emerging markets (EDC) may be at or close to a bottom, though. Rates also, may bottom soon. Both tend to lead the SPX by a little bit.

The NDX also tends to lead the SPX.

Outlook -- Look at the NQ (NDX)!

Silver and Gold should get a good tradable bounce. GDX is at support. Will try to go long AGQ here - for a trade - at 169. If I miss it, oh well.

Short-term NQ (NDX - Nasdaq) has more to fall, but Intermediate term charts look bullish. Maybe a bounce in the next couple of days.

ES should fall to 1320 or so before bounce -- along with NQ.

Dollar may be forming a nice, tradable inverse H&S. Or it may just rise until overbought.

Watch: TSL, AGQ, EURUSD.

Best Intermediate-term trades:

1. Short EURUSD -- look at DX for levels.

2. Long NQ at support 2300 -2330 range.

3. Long AAPL at support 320-30 range?

4. Long GDX - now! at very good support!

Equities

MT picture is now bearish.

I am looking for a bounce to short to the 1320s.

Silver - should get a shortable bounce soon.