Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

1. Predicting stock movement - thinking through everything.
2. Fundamental analysis and long-term trend analysis.

Weaknesses

1. I can't use stops for Swing trades. So I should only VERY RARELY swing trade.

So far, I've been successful mostly at intermediate-term call options (3-5 months out), and with long-term predictions. Swing trading, because of the Stop requirements, doesn't work for me. I don't like to follow stocks every day and cut losses as they go down. Not my style. I am good or can be good at analyzing sentiment, fundamentals and technicals carefully, deciding what will happen, and going long or short for a while.

2. Emotional attachment to AAPL.

Great company, but sometimes a bad stock - like any other. Don't let it become more than 30% of your holdings. Recognize your weakness.

June 30 - July 4 plan - Prelim

Preliminary thoughts -

1. Tech seems like it may be trending down for the next week or so; sell some Qs on the Monday rally and buy commodities. Oil crossing 140 means it is going to at least 150 or perhaps even 160.

2. Apple may rise to $175 - 180 on Monday or Tuesday on China news or an upgrade. If so, sell 2 calls on Monday highs and 4-6 more on Tuesday.

3. Sell BIDU on Tuesday.

4. On Tuesday or Wednesday go short Tech for a swing trade/hedge. (Use QIDs).

5. I Phone 3 G released July 11. Friday is July 4. I expect Tech to bottom again that Friday. Buy back then.

Oil is going to 115.

1. Change of mind. Oil is going down. Buy SU Puts.

2. Apple is going to $200+ soon. Buy July calls. Sell most of the Junes by Friday.

3. We're going up into Options.

4. Buy Google; Buy GS.

5. Buy SPWR December calls when it's around $65-70.

Tracking Apple

1. The intra-day Apple plan is to buy the dips ahead of the conference and to sell all at 12:30-12:45. Risky plan.

2. That Barron's rumor is funny. If it had come from anyone else, I wouldn't have known what to believe. But Barron's is Barron's.

2 b. Eric Savitz excellent post just negated the rumor. Change plans - I want to keep a little Apple and buy the dips during the developer conference.

New Target for June 180s. Half out at $9.5. (Purchase price.)

3. LT I want to start buying October 190s at or around $180.


4. But mostly I want to stay in cash. Let's look at some others as we set sell targets on Apple calls. I want to be all out or mostly out of Apple before the Key note.

Oil's Wowie!

Well, that was a nice U-turn. About the only silver lining, from my selfish perspective, of the $10 jump in oil yesterday, is that there are others like me who were similarly fooled. Also, that I took some profits earlier.

BIG LESSON:
FILTER OUT THE NOISE. My initial target for WTIC was $122. I was going to sell my Puts until I read a transcript of some Money show on CNBC. All the pundits were sure Oil was going to keep falling. Yeah right.

I need to keep doing what I did this weekend. Read the best - the ones on my blog and perhaps the WSJ, and think uninterruptedly.

NOW:

1. Oil will go to $148.

2. Sell SU Puts on Monday and Tuesday. Buy SU Calls.

3. Buy DIA Puts - in stages.

4. Sell AAPL early Monday. Sit on cash. Wait and see.

5. Tech will lift us out of the funk.

6. Watch the IWM.

Oil shorts; DIA puts; etc.

Oil - Wondering if I should cash out a few of the SU Puts today. Oil seems headed to $112, but wondering if it's time for a short-term ... No. Buy more. We're just getting started.

1. Buy SU July 65s at $3.2 or better.

Apple will rise until next Monday or so.

2. Sell one Apple $180 at $12.7.
Buy one Apple $180 at $10.6 or better.

I think we'll get a rally today. Maybe I'll get rid of a few of my DIA puts early and reload later.

3. DIA Puts - sell early; buy later

Short Oil - short-term trade - started 5/22; reloaded 5/29

Long-term fundamentals aside, I am actually shorting oil, on a technical and fundamental basis, for a short-term swing trade. Tomorrow or Friday morning we might get a double top in WTIC: a nice little place to begin a short position.

Equities may rise for a week or so, and then follow oil. It's very interesting to watch the daily play-off between oil and equities with one eye to the summer ahead. Fundamentally, in the short-run, I believe both will go down; however, to a large extent they behave inversely, so the first part of the fall will be fun to watch.

Here's my bet: I think Oil will go first, equities will get a slight bump, and then follow. Oil and large caps will begin a recovery in the second half of the summer.

Shorting Oil

Blog Inactive

I am studying TA to fill holes in my trading.  Blog will be inactive for a while.  Please see links on the left - they are excellent.

DON'T GET TOO BULLISH!

Use Monday to consolidate.  Even if the market trends higher after the Fed cut, the rally will be short-lived and could end within a week.  

Wait.  And watch. 

 

Be careful about shorting, especially with December Calls or Puts.  We may get a short squeeze.  Short any rally, when the trend seems to change.  Or, if you must short, short by selling calls and buying higher calls.

Be very careful.  Hang onto your YTD returns.