1. Vix forming a beautiful triangle on the daily chart. I think it will break up, when it is complete.
2. NAS against the ol 1250-1280 resistance. We haven't yet ever broken out of this zone since we entered it on 11/17 last year.
3. $NY50R confirms that we are headed down. This would be true even if we have an up day tomorrow.
4. $NYMO down. Forming a nice triangle, which I think will break down.
5. $NYSI - Look at the RSI, MACD and Stochs. Confirm down.
6. $ NYUDStill very strong negative divergence on 5 and 20 DMA.
7. SPX DAILY Stochs and CCI nowhere close to oversold. And all charts Daily Stochs are pointed down.
8. Yen Stochs still bearish (IMO).
Gold stocks may be forming a bull flag.
This is a fake out. We are going DOWN. Tuesday - Wednesday we test the November lows, we bounce off for Opex, then after Opex we go below. My 2 cents.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
2/10 - Nice Day today - and Future
1. Tomorrow maybe bullish -- maybe up to 836 - 840 before down.
2. 2-3 week view is Bearish.
3. 2-3 month view is Bearish.
- NY50R - 50 DMA shows negative divergence. This is bad medium-term.
- NY50R has crossed 5 DMA on the downside. This is bad
- NYUD 20 DMA is turning down and shows negative divergence.
- VIX trend change to up. Crossed 5 DMA, Stochs bullish cross. This is bad, medium term.
- We will likely go up to 836 or so tomorrow. It is important to use the high to buy back Feb Puts.
- Sell one or two March Puts around 825, early in the a.m., if at all possible. Buy back 3 Feb Puts. Don't worry about the near-term. We are going down.
- If you can't sell March Puts low, sell them high and immediately buy back Febs.
- You could sell the AZO, if necc.
- Set Limit orders for tomorrow, bef. you go to bed.
2. 2-3 week view is Bearish.
3. 2-3 month view is Bearish.
- NY50R - 50 DMA shows negative divergence. This is bad medium-term.
- NY50R has crossed 5 DMA on the downside. This is bad
- NYUD 20 DMA is turning down and shows negative divergence.
- VIX trend change to up. Crossed 5 DMA, Stochs bullish cross. This is bad, medium term.
- We will likely go up to 836 or so tomorrow. It is important to use the high to buy back Feb Puts.
- Sell one or two March Puts around 825, early in the a.m., if at all possible. Buy back 3 Feb Puts. Don't worry about the near-term. We are going down.
- If you can't sell March Puts low, sell them high and immediately buy back Febs.
- You could sell the AZO, if necc.
- Set Limit orders for tomorrow, bef. you go to bed.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Monday - and the Week head!
Monday - may be a down day.
Tuesday - Thursday the rally may continue.
After that, the big fall in Opex week?
Friday, February 6, 2009
More Mistakes
1. Did Opposite of my MAIN plan. SPX calls. Fought the market at its highs.
2. Lost Money.
3. Don't keep fighting.
4. Find the flow and then go with the flow.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Long Now/ FAS, FAZ
Tomorrow's Plan
1. Sell AZO 130s on any Dips.
2. Buy back 1 more AZO 120 on high.
3. Leave 1-1 Put spread in place for now.
4. Buy SPX March Calls on any Dips.
5. Sell SPX Feb Calls on any HIGHS.
6. Look at ERX and XLE.
1. Sell AZO 130s on any Dips.
2. Buy back 1 more AZO 120 on high.
3. Leave 1-1 Put spread in place for now.
4. Buy SPX March Calls on any Dips.
5. Sell SPX Feb Calls on any HIGHS.
6. Look at ERX and XLE.
DID OPPOSITE OF LAST THREE ABOVE. FOUGHT MARKET. LOST MONEY.
Ways to Play FAS, FAZ.
You could play these exclusively.
1. Find direction using XLF chart. Wait until you are sure.
2. Enter one position. In order to exit, use other one. In order to double down, short other...
Ways to Play FAS, FAZ.
You could play these exclusively.
1. Find direction using XLF chart. Wait until you are sure.
2. Enter one position. In order to exit, use other one. In order to double down, short other...
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Short anywhere close to 830.
830 will be a gift.
Go half and wait for confirmation. Use your excellent new risk management.
NYA 50R and Daily TICK 5DMA are both in Sell Mode. NY up-down volume is horrible. Short any rally.
1. SPX Puts.
2. AZO Puts.
3. QLD Puts/ QID Calls/ Q Puts.
4. ?
Go half and wait for confirmation. Use your excellent new risk management.
NYA 50R and Daily TICK 5DMA are both in Sell Mode. NY up-down volume is horrible. Short any rally.
1. SPX Puts.
2. AZO Puts.
3. QLD Puts/ QID Calls/ Q Puts.
4. ?
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
VERY GREAT SWING INDICATOR 2 - DAILY TICK 5DMA!!
5 DMA DAILY TICK
1. When 5 DMA crosses 0 (ZERO), GO SHORT, LONG.
2.If 5 DMA touches and reverses, follow the 5 DMA.
1. When 5 DMA crosses 0 (ZERO), GO SHORT, LONG.
2.If 5 DMA touches and reverses, follow the 5 DMA.
GREAT SWING INDICATOR 1
NYA50R - PERCENT OF STOCKS OVER 50DMA
Like any SWING indicator, this works very well in a trending market. In a range-bound market, if the range is very small, you may not make much money.
1. When signal line crosses 5 DMA, go SHORT/LONG.
2. If 5 DMA goes follows signal line UP or DOWN, you haveconfirmation. Go 2 X SHORT/ LONG.
3. If 5 DMA crosses 20 DMA, double confirmation. Go 4 X SHORT/LONG.
4. When signal line crosses 5 DMA in reverse direction, STOP OUT.
Like any SWING indicator, this works very well in a trending market. In a range-bound market, if the range is very small, you may not make much money.
1. When signal line crosses 5 DMA, go SHORT/LONG.
2. If 5 DMA goes follows signal line UP or DOWN, you haveconfirmation. Go 2 X SHORT/ LONG.
3. If 5 DMA crosses 20 DMA, double confirmation. Go 4 X SHORT/LONG.
4. When signal line crosses 5 DMA in reverse direction, STOP OUT.
Monday, February 2, 2009
2/2 Plan
1. Position for collapse. Within this week or next, we will fall.
2. Scottrade? Trades will take a few days to clear. When to transfer funds to TOS? When to close Scottrade?
3. Gold is falling. Hold DZZ till later today?
4. Get out of Oil after market open.
2. Scottrade? Trades will take a few days to clear. When to transfer funds to TOS? When to close Scottrade?
3. Gold is falling. Hold DZZ till later today?
4. Get out of Oil after market open.
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The 5-minute tape can help you get a good entry, but it has been very noisy recently.
Case in point: the early morning rally. 850 has been a safe short entry for the last three weeks. It was today, too. It was pretty hard to tell that from the tape....other than the fact that it was a little overdone.