Monday- Thursday Plan

Monday night update: Commodities are looking bearish. OIH looks like it has rolled over. Gold miners (especially the juniors) are looking terrible. Financials are looking good. Classic bullish breakout. Sector rotation is key. TRIN on the NAS is recovering, may mean further highs ahead. TRIN on the SPX is still quite overbought, but could be even more overbought (was earlier in the bull market). After a pullback, the SPX could soar. 5 DMA of CPC indicates big pullback imminent, but 10 and 13 DMA suggests further strength ahead. Negative divergence on New highs. Plan is to short EUR-USD, but buy C calls on a pull back.

Will try to:

- Sell C Puts at around C 3.82. Sold at 3.88. Missed 3.82 (overslept!)

- Sell BGZ around 1140 on the /ES. Sold at 1141 or so. Will try to buy around ES 1156.

- Bought BGZ at $14.48, 3/16 at 11:25 a.m.

- Buy AGQ around SLV 16.2; YI 16.5. Target is Jan highs on SLV and YI.

AGQ will be around 53.2.

- Buy SLW calls around the same price.

- Buy C June 4 Calls around $0.25.

- Sell EURUSD around 1.373. Sold at 1.3728. Underwater but okay. Will close at 1.37 and wait and see.

To investigate: $PLATINUM

3/16 11 a.m.: Bought SLV Puts at 17.41 or so on the continuous contract (/YI). Target $17.10. May go much lower, but I'm being conservative because ultimately I'm looking for a long. This is risky and I'm a bit nervous about this trade. Very ST overbought and at my initial target for a pullback, but has held channel and may have finished correction.

Today

Bought Q puts yesterday at around 47.35, sold today around 47.22, for a few cents profit.

Bought C puts today at C around 4.08. Target is 3.72 but I may sell around 3.82.

Will try to buy BGZ at around 14.70. Bought BGZ at 14.75.

The Biggest Bearish Blogs are (gasp) almost Bullish!!!

evilspeculator.com

slopeofhope.com

I very much respect both these guys, but look at them now... this is an awesome contrary indicator. On top of everything else! Wow.

FRAiDAY

Not one single blogger is bearish. Every thingle blogger -- including TIM KNIGHT -- is bullish! This is not good for the bulls. I am short QQQQs for at least a pullback.

I see it as a low risk-reward trade. This is just a ST trade while I wait for a pullback to get long. If we pull-back, I'll take some profits and run. If we don't we have to pull back some time soon -- 5 MA of TRIN and PC ratio haven't been giving this bearish a reading in a looong time.

Thursday

Will try to:

Buy SPY Puts around 1155 on the Cash.

or Buy SLV Puts again at $ 17.3 or so on the continuous contract (YI).

Target is $16.5 on YI (about 16.2 on SLV). Will try to go long at that point.

I sold puts bought 3/10 at YI 17.63 at around YI 16.95.)

or Buy GBPUSD around 1.498.

GBPUSD map --> 1.5050 -- 1.4980 -- 1.5250 --> fall to 1.4500. Buy 1.4980. Sell 1.5210

ES Range today - 1135 to 1155.

Wednesday

Will try to:

sell GBP/USD around 1.508. Hopefully it will make it there.

buy BGZ at 15.02 or so. --> bought at 14.94

buy SLV Puts at around 17.45 on the spot. --> bought at 17.63 on the spot.

Monday Plan

Dollar -

EURUSD - 1.3550 to 1.373

SPX - close to a ST top. 1141 (ST Top?)

Gold (YG) 1128 - 1140 (ST Top?)

Trades:

Buy GBPUSD 1.5075 (taking out short position). Buy EURUSD 1.357.

Sell long position in Silver (AGQ at 47.5 or so).

Weekend Update

Next week (between 3/8 and 3/15), gold will pause (at 1150-1160), and the dollar will pause its fall (between 79.6 and 80.1). The subsequent reaction will tell us if Gold is to triumph or the dollar. The Euro is batting for the dollar's triumph -- by continuing to fall apart as a monetary currency. If the dollar triumphs, then Gold will have a hard time going over 1160. However, I think that in the short-run, the dollar will decline.

I think the dollar will be weak in the short-term (1-2 weeks) and strong in the medium-term (1-3 months). In the short-term, the Euro may be stronger until 1.384. I personally don't see the Euro going beyond that level. It could, but I don't see it.

The Australian dollar will be strong in the long-term, and in the short-term. I think its bull market will continue for another 4-5 years, as a Commodity bull market started in October 2009. (Now is a really good long-term entry.) The AUD/USD is making a nice bull flag on the weekly chart.

In the short-term, the AUS/USD is a buy (until at least .9241 (175 pips or so)) where it meets a falling trend line that may cause a bit of resistance (the bull flag line). I believe that this high will come within the next week, and should coincide with a high in Gold, the EURO and the SPX. This will be a ST high.

To conclude:

In the long-term, I am bullish AUD/USD.

In the medium-term, I am bearish EUR/USD.

In the short-term, for the next week or two, I am bearish the USD and so I can be bullish the Euro, AUD and PMs. I will sell PMs around Gold 1155 to wait and see.

I think that after 1160, Gold will come down to 1130-1140, after which it will go straight up to 1300. This will be accompanied by the SPX going up to 1200-1240, which should all happen by May 1.

Basically, for the next four years or so, whenever the Euro and SPX are bullish, the AUD will be VERY bullish. The AUD/USD will probably predict moves in and roughly match the trends of the Hong Kong, Australia, Brazil and Indian stock indices.

Monday: Dollar rises EUR bottom at 1.357 or so, ES range 1025-1140. Gold 1135 -?

Trade: Buy GBPUSD 1.5075 (taking out short position). Buy EURUSD 1.357.

Tues Dollar falls; ES rises to 1140

Wed: Dollar falls; bottoms? SPX tops 1150-1160?

Thurs: Dollar falls; bottoms? SPX tops?

Fri: Dollar falls/rises. bottoms? SPX tops?

Gold, Euro, $, SPX

Medium-term:

Fundamentals on the EURO are more bearish than those on the dollar, so the EURO will fall to 1.31. I think that this may happen in the short-term, after a terminal move up.

The rising channel on the dollar is immediately below us right now. This is bearish EURO.

A falling EURO will create headwinds for US Equities. It is more difficult for equities to rise with a rising dollar. However, it has happened often.

I believe that US Equities are headed up to 1200 at least; it's just a matter of how long it takes. I believe we should be there by end April, which gives us about 7 weeks. Average gain implied is 12 points per week, but in bullish weeks it could be 20-25. Buy the dips in equities. There is a ST floor around 1113.

This implies that equities will disconnect from the Euro.

In the medium-term (2 months), I also believe that Gold is going to new highs around 1250-1300.

Short-term

Gold will go up to 1155 or so before any correction, and perhaps to 1160. Equities (ES) will go to 1123-30, I believe.

The dollar is at the bottom of its up trend channel - 0.37 away (about .74 on the EURUSD). That implies a target of 1.372 or so on the EURUSD, if the dollar hits the bottom of its channel. That means an upside target of 1145 on Gold. It is also a possible bearish indicator for equities.

However, I am quite sure about the Gold target, especially because my target for Silver is quite far away (3% or so). Gold could certainly rise with the dollar, but there would be headwinds if the dollar bounced sharply. This implies that the dollar will not bounce sharply (or not bounce sharply uncorrected) until my PM targets are reached. This is bullish for the EURO.

Sentiment on the Euro is massively bearish, which implies that there may be an downside breakout, out of the dollar channel. The EURUSD channel is quite far away on the upside so there is considerable room on the upside. A downside breakout of the dollar channel is possible; it would be difficult to accomplish, and it will likely be retraced quickly, but given the humongous bearish sentiment against the Euro, it is possible.

Humongous bearish sentiment is common in Wave 4s up. Also, Wave 4s can be choppy and last for a while. This means that we may have a marginal break of the dollar channel. Use breaks to go long the dollar, short the Euro.

Short the Euro aggressively when Gold gets to 1155.

The SPX will hold the EURO up

The ES (SPX E-mini futures) is going up to 1130 and then to 1145-1155 before a pause for breath.

The EURO will be held up by the ES, until at least 1130. I will short 1130 on the ES by going short the EURUSD.