1194- 1205.
At this point, I do expect the ES to come back up on Monday.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
No Spike Yet; Wave 3 of 5 to continue?
I really want to see a spike. If today is the end of Wave 3 of 5, then we should get a spike up. If we don't get a spike, we may go higher tomorrow.
AAPL earnings are next Tuesday, and we can drift up with minor pullbacks until then and hit 1230 or so on the SPX. That might be the end of Wave 3 of 5.
But NDX has already hit the upper horizontal line on this chart.
http://tinyurl.com/yl2x6ys
and that is significant.
p.s. I do think that this topping process will take a few days -- perhaps until April 20-25. I don't think the market will collapse before AAPL earnings on April 20. I will take profits on my May Puts at the first weakness and re add June Puts on subsequent highs.
I will consider buying a few AAPL Calls or Puts tomorrow, to sell before earnings on Tuesday afternoon. They will be worth more before earnings because of increased volatility.
Thursday
Trade Alert
I sold my IYR puts this morning -- the gains were too nice to let go of.
Bought SLV May Puts (at 18.05) and SPY May Puts (at around 1213). I am expecting higher SPY prices in the late afternoon (perhaps 1217-1220) and plan to buy a few more SPY Puts before close today. Tick suggests possible higher prices.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Wednesday
Trade Update
1. Sold SLV calls at SLV 18.05. Will buy again later.
2. Added to IYR Puts at IYR 52.5.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Monday/Tuesday
Monday Trades
1. Sold ZSL for average 3.7. Small loss.
2. Went long SLV via June calls at SLV 17.81 or so.
3. Short IYR via June Puts at about IYR 51.6.
(I expect IYR to weaken in anticipation of higher interest rates. Technically also, it has been weak.)
Plan
PMs: I expect a 3 wave correction in SLV to 17.5 (Silver 17.8) or a flat to 17.8 (Silver 18.1) or so. Gold should correct to 1140 or so. First, however, Gold should rise to 1160 and Silver to 18.25. I may sell my Silver calls at 18.25 and buy them back at the bottom of the third wave.
SPX: I expect a similar 3-wave correction. PMs has started first, so it will probably end first.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Friday, Weekend Update; Silver Target 19.5
Trades
1. Covered GBPUSD at 1.534 for a 60 pip loss. Staying off forex for now.
2. Shorted Silver (at $18.25 or so) via ZSL (bought at average price of 3.74).
There are two alternatives:
1. That 1200 is a temporary pit stop which pushes the SPX back down to 1180 or so before a final push up to 1230-1250.
2. We go straight to 1220 or so before a major correction.
I suspect 1 will happen. If 1 happens, then Silver should still correct to 18.2 or so. I will probably buy back most or all of my ZSL at Silver around 18.2 so that I have dry powder for the bigger top I am anticipating. This means I will accept break even, small loss, or pennies on my ZSL.
Medium-term (next one-two months) I am still bullish on PMs. However, as said earlier, they will correct with the general stock market, either on Monday-Tuesday around 1200 on the SPX or within the next week around 1220 or so.
Basic scenario: I think we will small-correct before earnings season and larger correct after earnings season (last week of April).
The next two months will be choppy - large up down moves.
All the best!
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Thursday
I think the E-minis will bounce here from 1173, which is a nice floor, all the way to 1181 or so, before they fall to 1163. That should be it for the correction, which should end tomorrow. It will be a great buying opportunity in PMs; it should coincide with Gold 1130 and Silver 17.8 or so.
I may try to buy:
1. Silver Calls at 17.8; May $18 calls for 0.43.
2. AGQ around $59.
3. BGU around 1164 on the ES.
4. AUD/USD around .9210.
5. Still holding GBPUSD short. Looking to sell around 1.5010.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Monday/Tuesday
Outlook
Money is flowing into commodities. The AUDUSD just broke out of overhead TL resistance. Is in the process of retesting. I am expecting a positive test, but we are in a resistance zone. This is the big trade here. Long PMs, long commodities, long AUD/USD.
However, in the VSR (today and tomorrow maybe) the USD may rise. There is potential for a ST top in the US indices on Wednesday. This is not clear, but some sort of consolidation in the indices is necessary after a bunch of recent breakouts. Also remember that earnings season is near, and we need a little pull back for a major run ahead of Tech earnings around the week of 4/25.
Tech is the other big trade here. Long AAPL at around 233? 226-7 would be a great entry, but I'm not sure how you would get it. Long BRCM?
The EUR will likely fall against the USD, but in fits and starts. This is a very crowded trade, with lots of non commercials, but its also a fundamentally sound trade. Right now, I expect it to fall to 1.31 or so, within the next day or so.
The GBP will also fall, but it's not in terminal decline and may show some strength against the USD after this VSR fall.
Trades
1. Covered EURUSD at 1.349. Mistake.
2. Shorted GBPUSD at 1.5275. Target 1.5010, but it may go down to 1.4934 or so today or tomorrow.
I may try to:
1. Buy SLV calls around SLV 17.3; Gold 1130; Silver $ 17.6.
2. Buy AGQ around $58.7.
3. Buy AUD/USD at around 0.9240. Target 1.1113.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Week Ahead 4/5 onwards
- I think that the USD will rise on Sunday and Monday, and the Euro should fall to 1.33 or so by Tuesday. I will try to short this move in the Euro. This fall should give a nice opportunity to load up on PMs. I will buy around Gold 1120 even though Gold may fall to 1107 or so.
- The ES should fall with the move up in the dollar. This would be a good opportunity to buy. At this point I expect the downside to be limited to 1150 or so, but it's possible that we will fall to 1140-1145.
I may try to:
1. Sell EURUSD around 1.349. Buy 1.345, then sell a bounce. I expect 1.3300 on this move down and probably 1.3200 by mid week. Sold at 1.3496.
2. Buy SLV calls around SLV 17.0; Gold 1120; Silver $ 17.6.
3. Buy AGQ around $58.7.
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