Short SPY at ES 1111 - Wow!

What a close.

I guess the market is telling us that QE 2 is coming after the Fed meeting next week. Shouldn't try to short a market with NAAD 10 MA this high. Should have known.

Will trade out of part position at close to break even if possible; purchase Puts again at around 1130 or so.

The Big Question Is:

Is Deflation bad for equities in a zero interest-rate environment, with QE 2 looming around the corner?

I think we saw a high in the SPX and may see another one later this month after QE arrives. I will start shorting the EURO at 1.34 or so. The EURO should eventually go higher, but the SPX may have another top later this month. The NAS may have a lower top or double top later this month.

SPX predictions: 1113 (August 12) - 1095 (August 13) - 1102 - 1080 - 1140-60 (before August 25).

Change of Mind - OUT of SPY at 1107

This may be it for the SPY, for the time being. Still long the EURUSD, though.

ES may go up to 1110, but then down to 1095 minimum. EURUSD is going to 1.335 or 1.34 before a breather.

Long SPY at ES 1109.5

Will try to go more long at 1105. Target 1130 or so.

LONG EURUSD at 1.32 and 1.324 target 1.34

What the commodities market is telling us is that: thank you, United States, for the terrible data, but you're not THAT important. You might catch up, eventually. Until then, watch my rear end.

The world is pulling the U.S. along, and it's not the other way around. Horse - cart switch.

The SPX will not crash until the EUR reaches 1.35.

State of the Market (SOTM)

1. BIDU still going up like a rocket.

2. QQQQs really ST oversold - as seen from TRIN.

3. 50% of crash resistance at SPX 1120. Big resistance at 1128.

4. AAPL not listening to BIDU's call.

5. EDC not going up after big day.

6. EURUSD definitely taking a breather. Down to 1.31 definitely and quite possibly to 1.304.

I will long EURUSD at 1.304 and 1.31. EURO is in Wave 4. This will be choppy. Short starting 1.345 or so. 1.35 will be big resistance.

I think August will be choppy for the SPX and we will form an intermediate-term top. Shorter-term trades in August might be fruitful if bought at the margins: for instance, long SPX at 1100-10; short 1130. Starting 1130-1140 I will probably start building a longer-term short position.

Correction: I may start building a longer-term short position. At the moment, I am more inclined to go long in the 1100-1100 range on SPX and the 1.295 - 1.3115 range in the EURUSD.

Closed EURUSD short; long for a quick bounce at 1.3202

Now out of EURUSD long at 1.319.

Will stick to swings from now - no day trades.

Won't go long EURUSD at these levels. Too overbought. May short again at ES 1130.

Sold AAPL Calls at 259.5; EDC at 29.6

Too early obviously. These were yesterday's trades.

The SP500 should go to at least 1130 before resistance.

Initiated one-third short EURUSD at 1.325

Closed out EURUSD long at same price.

I plan to add to this position at higher levels, if EURUSD goes higher.

This is a ST trade. Still bullish on EURUSD until at least 1.345.

Commodity Markets, AUDUSD indicating that QE2 may be coming

Also take note of Fed Bullard's statement last Thursday. Fed meets in 1.5 weeks, but announcement could come any time before then, including this Friday.

Watch out for the helicopters.