State of the Market Review

Inverse H&S in SPX not yet complete. Target is 1250.

AAPL looking bearish LT, bullish ST.

Banking stocks look bullish. Breakouts being tested now. FAS?

/DX is a temporary resistance, but I have a target of at least 80 within a month. Perhaps a drop to 77.2 before further rise?

PMs look like more consolidation/ fall necessary (esp in Silver).

So, correction takes another 2 weeks? Then rise to 1250. Should get a tradable bounce on Monday/Tuesday from 1185 to 1190 on the ES.

Then 1210 then 1168 on SPX.

Final wave up to 1240-1260 in March? Double top on the NAS which will lag.

Targets:

Wave 4 Path (# 1 - 3 below)

1. 11/13- 15 - SPX ST bottom around 1185-1190; DX ST top 78.7 to 79.2. ZSL 14.8 - 15.5. SLV 24.2.

2. 11/16 - 11/18 top at 1210. DX bottom at 77 - 77.4.

3. 11/25-30 or so - SPX bottoms 1170 or so. DX 80.3. ZSL 18. (SLV 22.5).

4. Wave 5. SPX rises to 1250 +.

Next Phase of Bull Market

After a decline from 1225 on the ES to 1185-1190, I believe the SPX will rise to 1300 or so.

I am waiting for the decline to go long:

Silver __

and

Emerging markets

Reminder - Plan

Short Silver

Long TBT

Stop out of part of SPX short.

SPX may go up for a bit (Nov 3?) or go down immediately. Not sure, so will put money where I am more sure.

Will Buy more TBT and TZA tomorrow.

Silver and Gold have more downside; TBT trend is up

Bought ZSL at 18.1; sold at 19.41

Sold TZA for +8%; GBPUSD update; ZSL, TBT Update

Will try to buy TBT tomorrow around $32.5 or 33. Expecting more weakness tomorrow (Thursday). (1 week trade). November 3 sell.

Will try to buy more ZSL at SLV 23.5. (2-3 day trade?).

/DX will ST top tomorrow or Friday, then fall until November 3.

Covered earlier GBPUSD short at 1.572. Short again GBPUSD at 1.5785, target 1.56.

TBT Long trade - buy 33.0 sell 37

Will probably take this trade. 1-2 week trade.

Edited from 33.5 to 33. May even go to 32.5 or so before up move, but I think 33 will be it.

After I get out of the TZA and BGZ trades, I am going to try to trade SLV and TBT exclusively for the next few weeks.

Week ahead: Weds up, Thursday up then down. Friday down. 1145 bottom.

Next week up until November 3 sell the news.

LONG TZA at ES 1178; Short GBPUSD at 1.589

LT Account

Long BGZ at /ES 1130 (60% of position) and TZA at /ES 1178 (40% of position) in LT account.

ST Account

Short GBPUSD at 1.589. First target 1.56.

Sold 1/3 BGZ yesterday at ES 1129; re-bought at ES 1145 just now

Now short SPX (via BGZ)at an average price ES 1130, SPX 1134. Plan to cover around ES 1107.

Getting killed on the EURO short but still holding a small position.