Win's Way

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Shorty Shortz

I took partial profits but then shorted more TF, QQQ and FAZ. Will short more if it goes up. Will go long PMs (NUGT) soon.

Update: Closed most shorts. Long NUGT, SLW.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Switching short

IWM Puts; TZA 830-835 TF. Small position.

Update: Ouch. Will Add at 840-841.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Looking to buy SLV, SLW Puts; DUST calls

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Looking to buy the RUT

Soon. TNA will be my friend.

Bought TNA 61.6 and 60.8.

Targets

Staying long EDC, TQQQ until at least 119 and 115 respectively. Will sell FSLR, TSL around 30 and 8 respectively. This is Wave 5 of 3 of big bull.

Should take us up to 1440 on the ES. Air pocket. Inter market relationships change, but charts don't lie.

Monday, March 12, 2012

DUST, TQQQ, EDC, TSL, FSLR

Still long DUST, in the money quite a bit. Plan to stay short for another 10% at least.

still long TSL, small position.

Tomorrow and Wednesday, I plan to go in big long -- long FSLR, TQQQ and probably EDC.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Short Again

Lots of DUST

A few IWM puts

A little CTRP and TSL as hedges. Will likely exit these tomorrow.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Out of shorts; Long for a bounce

Small long -- DUST puts, QQQ calls, TSL, bought at lows. Some support here. Will take a quick buck and run.

Upcoming trades:

1. Will short miners, long FAZ again, probably by EOD tomorrow. Looking for XLF 14 in a week or so. That would be a great FAS long.

2. TF has strong support around 770- 778, SPX around 1330. Will look to go long IWM at those levels. Showing some signs of bottoming.

Update -

3. Also looking at DUST and DUST calls at around DUST 35.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Bought BGZ at 22.22. Will wait and see, but I'm looking for 1340 ES right now. Might go long a couple of solars at that point. Miners are going down big time. Will add to DUST tomorrow on expected bounce in miners.

Still long FAZ and DUST. Watching FAZ carefully.

First target is 775 or so on RUT.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Week Ahead

I expect continued weakness in risk assets until at least March 8.

I plan to stay long DUST until at least $33.5 or so (but possibly much higher), and also stay long FAZ until at least $29.

$USD is going to 81.8.

I will watch the dollar closely for further clues on the metals and indices.

COMP will be a great buy at around 2900;

I am also planning on going long the solars around $25 on FSLR and $6.80 - 7 on TSL.

Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.