Bought TNA 60.07, TSL 6.55

Looking to buy more TSL (6.3) or FREE (1.01).

Bottom tomorrow

Resurrection Monday.

Will try to buy TNA at 59 and change. DRYS at 3.18

Bought JCP at 35.01, YGE, more FSLR, TSL

JCP calls and stock. Will sell part position at 36. Holding much of it for target $47.

YGE 3.6 or so

FSLR stock 24.7

TSL calls 6.9

Inverse ETFs

In my opinion, you should NOT use inverse ETFs to trade against the larger trend, even for short periods of time. It is too risky and too hard. Trading should be easier than that.

The exception is when the larger trend is at a crossroads or changing. Then you can make a few bucks by betting against the larger trend at extremes.

I have made a lot of money by using inverse ETFs. If I'm in a bull market, and I buy the dip (at support) with them, I will make money. Also vice versa.

It's all about reading the larger trend correctly. Right now, IMO, the intermediate-term (3-9 month) trend is long, the short-term trend (1-2 month) is uncertain and the the very short-term trend is uncertain (1 week). So I am looking to buy the dips for an intermediate term long.

Trade update

Bought dip (too early) TSL (target 9.4), FSLR (target 34.5 in 1-2 weeks)

Changed mind on GDX. Looking at going long GDX for a swing.

Also looking at INDL, EDC, FREE, DRYS, SLW, DUST.

LT Views

I am very confident that we are in a long term bull market and have been (mostly) trading accordingly for at least 6-8 months (thank god). Further confirmation came about a month ago with the very important break up in TNX and down in TLT.

I am not an EW-er but if i were, I would count us as in Wave 3 of 5 of a move that begun last October 1. Wave 1 ended December. Wave 5 is still to come, and will probably take us to 2007 highs. As you know, $COMP and $NDX have already confirmed that this is a bull market. $COMP, which is a 3000+ stock index, broke 2007 highs.

At some point there will be a Wave 4 (we might be in it) and at some point $COMP may retest 2007 highs, but in my very strong opinion, in this environment, any consistent swing trading strategy other than buy the dip is a losing proposition. As a good researcher and guinea pig, I have tested other strategies.

GDX, TSL, FSLR

Looking at a possible short.

Bought dip (too early) TSL (target 9.4), FSLR (target 34.5 in 1-2 weeks)

Changed mind on GDX. Looking at going long GDX for a swing.

Also looking at INDL, EDC, FREE, DRYS.

Shorty shortz

Coming close to a possible tradeable top. 10-20 ES points from here. 1330-1340 ES. 2800 NDX. 760 TF. AAPL 680.

Trade Update

Out of all shorts. Sold SLW -- nice profits but a bit too soon. Still in NUGT for a few more points.

Bought FSLR @ 26.65 -- too soon. Will try to add at 25.2 or so.

Bought TSL at 7.95.

Will try to buy TNA on Monday.

My Views of Manipulation

"Manipulation" is a fact of life. The fed's policies in the past four years mirror its policies in the post WW2 era when they flooded the market with liquidity and kept rates down to help the economy recover. In the early 1950s, the Fed decided to let rates rise and stocks took off for a 20 year bull market. Such a move has started.

It is the Fed's job to intervene to provide liquidity in deflationary crises and to sap liquidity in inflationary times. That is in the Fed's charter, it is monetary policy, and it is reality. The fed has a dual mandate -- employment and inflation. And IMHO, over the past four years, in the face of extreme pressure, in spite of sometimes unhelpful fiscal policy, the Fed has done exactly what it should have.

And, IMHO, all Fed policy is reflected in charts. I, and many traders who have traded this rally more successfully than I, have been trading based on TA. Look at bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com for one example.