ST Outlook

Look at the volume pattern on a QQQQ 1-year daily chart, then on an ES daily 1-year chart. We are seeing volume that we haven't seen since March 2009. I don't think this is bullish.

At the end of a major down move, you will see big volume bars. Normal. It's a selling climax. Similarly, at the end of a major up move, big volume bars signify a buying climax.

ES:

Bottom at 1060-1070 ES. 50% (or thereabouts) retrace, then down to 1030-1040 ES.

Gold

Bottom at $1075 or so. This is a fall of about $150 from the top. 50% retrace is 1150. We should retrace to around $1135-1140 at least before any correction.

Silver

Silver fell from $19.57 to $16.07 (if the fall is over, as I assume it is). 50% retrace is $17.82 at least, but probably up to $18.30 or so (where it will meet a falling trend line) before correcting a little.

Gold or the Dollar

In this coming bounce, it should become clear whether Gold or the dollar will triumph. Very shortly, we should get a bounce in the SPX and Gold coincident with a dollar top.

Ritholtz and Bespoke - WARNING!

S&P 500 crashes through support. Traders had been watching 1080-1085 level. So much for the strong opening. “The reversal today was telling,” FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz says.

- It’s getting ugly out there. “This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good,” Bespoke says. “There’s simply no way to sugercoat it.”

"BR: I don’t know about other technical analysts, but back in September I warned of a 5-15% correction (it was 6.5%). Now, I am looking for a 10-20% correction." = Barry Ritholtz

The Correction is NOT over

Please proceed with caution. Take quick profits on long trades.

Nice Lesson on Market Dynamics

In a downtrend, every thing falls. Every thing. The instrument that gives the most resistance, falls the hardest. Don't worry, it will fall. So far, until further notice, unless this bounce

(when it comes) crosses 1150 SPX with gusto, this is a downtrend. And 1120-1130 should be shorted. 1120-130 SPX should correspond with 1120 - 1130 Gold.

Long SLV up to Gold $1120- $1125

I think Gold will go up to $1100 by next Wednesday latest, probably Monday or Tuesday, and then to $1120, within 5-10 days. Then it may fall heavily, along with the market.

Trading lessons

Two lessons

1. I do best when I plan my trades on instruments that I am following carefully, worst on spur of the moment alternative trades that occur to me. Today's Q buy seemed like a good idea, but I hadn't given Q's the time that I have to the other instruments I have been watching more carefully.

2. It's always a good idea to wait for overbought/ oversold conditions to buy/sell.

ST Outlook

Equities down to $43 QQQQ; 1060-1070 ES;

Dollar up $80;

Gold bottoms $1070 - 1080.

EUR/USD temporary bottom around 138.

Trade: Long PMs. Short EUR/USD until 138.

SCALPING!

Scalping is the name of the game. That's what Carl is doing, and that's what I can do to build the account. Successful scalping with stops -- as I did today. Stopped out of a EUR/USD short at 1.410, went short at 1.45, covered at 1.402. Hey, 48 pips is 48 pips!

ST outlook

MT and LT we are screwed. ST we may get a bounce from 1075. Best to just ease up and then short again.

Consider going long SLV or GLD for a quick bounce.