Friday Trades

1. Sold GS Puts around GS 151. Bought at 160 so it was okay but still bummer. Was sick and didn't want to be watching all day.

2. Sold XLF Puts for small gains.

3. Bought Silver futures at 18.6. Target 19.4.

4. Long AUD/USD at .9290. Swing trade, no target yet. Stop .9200.

New Lesson

Sold GS Puts at open at 151 or so.

Don't sell too soon!

Well, today I was sick and didn't want to be inside and trading, so I have an excuse, but I need to sit on my trades until I see a reversal.

Lesson from Today

Have to become more conservative. Need to watch for topping/bottoming action before buying. Need to keep at least 30% in reserve.

Stopped out of SPY Puts at ES 1204

For a nice loss. Still holding XLF and GS Puts. Added GS Puts at 160.4. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I doubt that financials are just going to go straight up, with the bill in Congress going the way it is.

Wrong! SPX is going to 1210-1212 minimum

SPX will fill a gap at 1210-1212 before any drop.

Update 11:58 a.m.

This could be Wave 5 of 5. I may close shorts slowly and consider going long.

1:35 p.m. But the NYA still has a declining 5 MA (classic short call) and an H&S pattern.

And NASD and SPX have sell signals on the daily MACD.

Trade Update

The Russell is weak. I am short XLF, GS and SPY via Puts from 1197 to 1200 on the ES. Went short between 9:30 and 10 a.m. this morning.

Update at 10:45 a.m. I could be wrong. TICK is very strong today.

10:49 a.m. Is this Wave 5 of 5?

Looking to (Possibly) Short Baidu

See what happens after earnings releases -- whether to the upside or downside.

Dollar, Gold, or Silver?

One of the the dollar or Silver will break an important trend soon. I think it might be Silver. I will short the ES at 1195. If it doesn't get to 1195, I may try to short sooner. I believe Silver will fall with the ES (from 18.25 or so).

Gold may fall too, temporarily at least. GDX and SLW are at the top of their channels. A retrace, at the very least, is likely. The dollar will move up to 84 soon.

If Gold manages to close over 1170, this point is invalidated.

As I have said before, the dollar will rise in the SR. The main alternative to the dollar is the Euro, which is getting a downgrade a minute. Until Standard and Poors downgrades the United States, the dollar will rise. When S&P threatens to downgrade U.S. debt, watch Gold. It will make a $100 move in one day.

SPX

This is turning into a 5 wave move down.

Daily charts have turned.

Important turning point.

I will short the 3 wave retrace.

Gold is looking strong.

If gold closes over 1170, I will go long gold, not Silver, not GDX.

Wednesday Plan

Today is a full moon day. I guess I should have known.

Gold is up, equities are down.

I will be buying SLV calls, GDX calls, and SPY Puts tomorrow.

I expect SPX to descend to between 1150-1175 minimum, and possibly more. I expect a nice bounce tomorrow. By Thursday we should be up to 1200 or slightly more.

Trades:

I will try to buy June SPY Puts at 2.32.

I bought Silver at 17.99. I may get out of this soon.

Out of Silver for break even.

If the market collapses, Gold will hold out better than Silver.