Not sure

Not sure about longevity of bounce. We may be headed down into the 900s. I may exit longs (at least partially) on a good bounce. We'll see. I may sell September calls agains the December ones.

On the other hand, the dollar isn't going up at this time (from the little I can see of price action while working at another job 12 hrs a day) and I am a LT equities bull.

Bought BIDU, TYO

Bought Bidu December calls at BIDU 79.5. Stop 76.5. More downside possible, but that's fine.

Bought TYO at 42.5. Contingent stop 40.00.

Just bought BIDU, EDC. Trying to buy TYO.

BIDU December calls; EDC, and EEM December calls.

We may not bottom until mid next week. I expect to modify these -- sell on rallies and buy dips for the next few days -- while maintaining a core position.

LT Trades

I am close to intermediate-term trades in shorting U.S. Treasuries (TYO) and long(ing) emerging equities with EDC. (Within 5%). These will probably materialize some time next week.

s.t. con fu sion --> l.t. clarity

ST

1. Bond rates (TNX, TYX) are close to strong resistance, suggesting a strong move up in Equities.

2. EURUSD is toppy, suggesting a move up in the dollar, which generally would correspond with a strong move down in equities.

3. Continued bounce in equities and EURUSD for now? Next week, I think dollar jumps and we bust through resistance on the bonds, fall to 1050-1060 in equities. Bonds go up in last-ditch fake out top.

LT

The best trade is long bond rates. I think we could go up a little more in bonds, but shorting bonds across the western world is the LT trade.

SPX; EURUSD Update

1. TRIN quite oversold on a ST basis; also this is Opex week. Bounce soon? Daily slow Stochs on RUT are already below 30; Slow stochs on Bonds are at 70.

2. EURUSD may bounce soon (from 1.2600 - 1.27 to 1.300), but ultimately may go down to 1.245 or so (61.8% retrace of recent up move).

3. Strong dollar (weak Euro) will create headwinds for SPX. SPX down to 1060 then up to 1100 or so, then down to 1040?

4. Copper could easily fall 2.5% from here before support.

Conclusion: ST bounce likely but there is more to fall before support. Short with Euro Puts or BGZ.

Sold YCS at 17.90

Still expect further strength in USD/JPY but at ST resistance, also want to free up capital.

Short JPY

Bought YCS at 17.35. May add at lower levels. Target around $19 but to be refined.

Out of SPY Shorts at ES 1117 to 1119

Short SPY at ES 1111 - Wow!

What a close.

I guess the market is telling us that QE 2 is coming after the Fed meeting next week. Shouldn't try to short a market with NAAD 10 MA this high. Should have known.

Will trade out of part position at close to break even if possible; purchase Puts again at around 1130 or so.