Update

SP may climb to 1290 and possibly double top at 1300. IWM will hugely diverge.

/DX is still weak, thanks to QE. This should put a bid under the larger caps, but not as much under the small caps.

I am short the Russell from ES 1283, after getting out of earlier shorts circa ES 1274.

Short until 1245-50 zone

I plan to stay short until 1245-1250 on the ES.

I am short via TZA. Sold IWM puts at 1274 ES but will buy again at about 1283.

Market Update

SPX down to at least 1235 or so.

Wave A down to ES 1261.

Wave C to 1235.

Gold up to at least 1375 or so.

AGQ 134 at least.

NDX may have peaked. Possible. Nice short for now.

SPX will double top (with 2007 top) this year or early 2012.

In mid Feb go long.

Next Month

1. Equities:

- I see a small bounce in the week ahead, then a 50 point drop in the S&P, probably from 1280 to 1230. Drop should start around AAPL earnings.

- From 1230, I think we rise to 1330 or so by March-April.

- In March-April, I think we start a 1.5 year bear market in the United States.

- Problem is that this is against the Presidential cycle, so I'm not yet sure on the bear market. Maybe we get an extended Wave 5?

2. Silver/ Gold: I am buying this correction with AGQ in the 138 level. I see us going up from here.

3. BSE can be safely shorted up to 18500 at least. Then we will get a big bounce.

Some of my Trades:

1. Long AGQ 138

2. Looking to short India (long INDZ at 26.2 or so).

3. Looking to short SPX (long BGZ at $8.4 or so).

Took profits on a quick long EDC trade this morning.

Took profits on short Silver trade.

Nenner

I like what I see of Nenner's model.

Evidently, he has two ways of making predictions: sunspots and technical analysis. When both align, he makes a call.

Right now, his major predictions are:

1. Silver and Gold up in 2011 to new highs.

2. Equities up for next 2-3 months. November 30 was a good time to buy. (I did!)

3. U.S. will double dip and we will see Dow 5000 in the next 2-3 years. India and China will not feel the double dip. We will start to see this fall after 2-3 months.

4. The strength of India and China will determine how the U.S. and Europe pull out of the double dip.

5. India and China will lead for the next 100 years.

6. U.S. Housing market woes are not over. The U.S. is following Japan's path.

(I'm not sure about this last one, because the U.S. is still increasing in population.)

7. War/global catastrophe in end 2012, beginning 2013.

8. USD will be strong in 2011. We have seen the top in the JPYUSD.

Trade Update

Doubled down ZSL a few days ago - at 12.7, sold at 13.7 and 12.8 for small profit.

Bought EDC at 33.5; sold at 36.35. Will look to get in again soon.

Will go long AGQ today.

Still long UNG.

Long ZSL at $13.65; Still long UNG from $5.55; target $7

Sold AGQ at 113.5

One day profits of 5% too good to resist.

Plus, I'm learning that you have to be in and out when knife catching.

Plus, ES is at temporary resistance.

Plus, I want to get out and enjoy the day.

Trade Update

Sold ZSL at $15.4

Bought AGQ at $108.1

Bought UNG at $5.56

Bought FAS at $23.11

Update - Sold FAS at $22.4. Not happy with price action.

State of the Market Review

Inverse H&S in SPX not yet complete. Target is 1250.

AAPL looking bearish LT, bullish ST.

Banking stocks look bullish. Breakouts being tested now. FAS?

/DX is a temporary resistance, but I have a target of at least 80 within a month. Perhaps a drop to 77.2 before further rise?

PMs look like more consolidation/ fall necessary (esp in Silver).

So, correction takes another 2 weeks? Then rise to 1250. Should get a tradable bounce on Monday/Tuesday from 1185 to 1190 on the ES.

Then 1210 then 1168 on SPX.

Final wave up to 1240-1260 in March? Double top on the NAS which will lag.

Targets:

Wave 4 Path (# 1 - 3 below)

1. 11/13- 15 - SPX ST bottom around 1185-1190; DX ST top 78.7 to 79.2. ZSL 14.8 - 15.5. SLV 24.2.

2. 11/16 - 11/18 top at 1210. DX bottom at 77 - 77.4.

3. 11/25-30 or so - SPX bottoms 1170 or so. DX 80.3. ZSL 18. (SLV 22.5).

4. Wave 5. SPX rises to 1250 +.