Bounce not done, but after bounce more downside ahead

SPX, BSE, SOX, RUT should come down significantly further than these lows.

QQQ could double bottom at a slightly lower point.

1280 ES is buy zone

I plan to buy EDC around 36.7 and INDL around 38. Probably BGZ or SOXL around ES 1280. I'm long a small position of AGQ.

Positive divergence in SOX vs. SPX, EEM vs. SPX, AAPL vs. SPX, etc.

Also look at /NQ (NDX) circa 2256 (or 2007) highs. Very strong support.

This is a great buying opportunity, at least for the short-term.

CORRECTION: I believe that this correction may end around 1250 SPX or 2200 NDX. Accordingly, bounces can be shorted. However, we should still see a bounce on Monday.

Best Guess

SPX goes up to 1375 - marginal new highs - before fall. This happens around May 25.

Then we get another fall to SPX 1220-1250 or so.

I may buy a small position around SPX 1328, if we see it tomorrow. Strictly ST trade. Stop 1320.

Sold EDC, BGU, QQQ calls today.

ST Bullish; IT not sure; LT bullish

I am very short-term bullish. (3-5 days).

Beyond that, I am not sure.

Intermediate-term, I am not sure. We may need to go back to the 2007 highs on the QQQs and NDX before further upside. That is another 3-6% down.

I am long the QQQs, BGU and EDC until resistance.

I plan to short the EURO at 1.44. It may get to 1.45 or so before falling further.

Emerging markets (EDC) may be at or close to a bottom, though. Rates also, may bottom soon. Both tend to lead the SPX by a little bit.

The NDX also tends to lead the SPX.

Outlook -- Look at the NQ (NDX)!

Silver and Gold should get a good tradable bounce. GDX is at support. Will try to go long AGQ here - for a trade - at 169. If I miss it, oh well.

Short-term NQ (NDX - Nasdaq) has more to fall, but Intermediate term charts look bullish. Maybe a bounce in the next couple of days.

ES should fall to 1320 or so before bounce -- along with NQ.

Dollar may be forming a nice, tradable inverse H&S. Or it may just rise until overbought.

Watch: TSL, AGQ, EURUSD.

Best Intermediate-term trades:

1. Short EURUSD -- look at DX for levels.

2. Long NQ at support 2300 -2330 range.

3. Long AAPL at support 320-30 range?

4. Long GDX - now! at very good support!

Equities

MT picture is now bearish.

I am looking for a bounce to short to the 1320s.

Silver - should get a shortable bounce soon.

Silver Dollar

Silver will bounce from the 40-42 zone. There is strong support there. I am expecting another run up to the $50 range, and possibly higher.

Dollar is starting an up leg, at least in the ST.

More Upside in Equities Likely

ST bounce in equities likely from nearby levels.

1. Out of TZA at $35.3.

2. Still in ZSL. Average price $18.15.

Update

Lowered Average ZSL price to $17.6. Now down big on this trade. Silver is parabolic, which means mean reversion is likely, which means this trade has now become a 1-3 month hold. I am at full position size, but will try to sell bounces in ZSL (and buy drops), to bring down my purchase price.

Change of Direction

Equities are setting up for a withdrawal of liquidity, in anticipation of the end of QE 2.

FSLR and TSL recommendations are void. I should have posted this earlier, but have been very busy.

I stopped out of FSLR at 150 and plan to get out of TSL at around $29.

I am looking to buy TZA around $35-35.5. I think we will hit the Feb lows again.

ZSL would also be a good play, after a bounce in Silver. I am expecting Silver to retrace big. Will post targets after some work.

EDIT:

ZSL is a buy around 19.15- 19.30 zone.