WTF is up?

Bearish
1. QQQ weekly has been hugging the underside of the middle Bollinger. MACD has a huge negative divergence and about to go below zero. 

2. Bullish Percent for NYA shows huge negative divergence on weekly, monthly charts.

3. VIX is staying above the upper Bollinger.

4. SOX daily bust through the middle Bollinger and is headed for at least the lower BB.

5. Rising wedge pattern on SPX.

Bullish

1. AAPL is fundamentally cheap. Value investors should be buying right now.

2. NIKKEI is breaking out of a LT chart. May need a bit of a correction, though.

3. $RUT daily is at the middle Bollinger and at support. Dow and SPX daily very close to lower BB. QQQ just below daily BB. At least a small bounce looks probable.

4. Something should happen over the weekend to help with the fiscal cliff.

5. TLT hitting 50 DMA from the underside. Should mean at least a temporary set back.

6. $HGX - housing -- breaking out with inverse H&S. Looks very bullish.

7. AAPL daily could be at double bottom with big MACD divergence.

Conclusions:

I am bearish medium term and will trade accordingly. I will accumulate AAPL on the dips. Seems fundamentally wrong to have AAPL in the low to mid 400s, but it could happen.

Trades:
-- As planned, I sold DUST and went long NUGT today at $10.10.
-- Also, I bought SOXS.

DUST, NUGT, STP, SCTY, TZA

1. Will try to sell STP around 1.52 - 1.55

2. GDX wants to rise. Will try to sell DUST around 34.5.  Sold part position at 37.5.
Will look to go long NUGT around 10, part position.

3. Looking to go long AGQ around SILVER at 29.

4. Will try to sell SCTY (bought at 10.6) at 11.6 or so.

5. Long TZA at 14.05.  May add at 13.9 or so. Will probably sell around 15.

6. Will go long AAPL or TQQQ in the next few days. Waiting for signal.

All trades are swing trades, unless stopped out.

Have Been Long DUST from 32, STP from 1.0

Sorry about the lack of updates.

Will sell DUST around 40.

Also long SCTY, STP.

Will try to go long TQQQ at around 50.5.

There is more upside in equities after pull back.

Sold FAZ, SPXU, Bought more NUGT

Made some change on the SPXU and FAZ, but really hurting on that NUGT.

Lesson learned.  When stocks really fall, GDX will fall too. Maybe it will fall worse.

Bought TQQQ at 44.9.  Will go more long at lower prices.

Update: NUGT average price is now 12.60.

I am waiting for a bounce to exit NUGT.  I will look to short GDX, probably at the 200 day.  Weekly middle BB is also resistance right around the 200DMA  Right now, there should be a nice bounce up to the 200 DMA.

Long FAZ, SPXU, NUGT

Will try to go long AGQ on Monday or Tuesday.

FAZ at 18.05

SPXU at 42.35

NUGT (from earlier) 14.8




Edit: lowered NUGT cost to 14.6.  Will probably lower FAZ and SPXU cost today.

Will short Financials on Bounce. Holding NUGT.

Average price on NUGT is 14.8 now.  This is my largest position.  Looking for 25 or so as final target.

Also long AGQ.

I am long TQQQ at 50.8 and 48.4.  Plan to sell around 51.5 - 52 range.

Looking to short financials via FAZ.

SPX going to 1300, after small bounce.


UPDATE: CHANGE OF MIND: Will get out of TQQQ tomorrow. QQQ going to 61.5 before bounce.

Sold SPXU at 39.98

SOX and RUT acting well.  RSP:SPY indicating strength in the indices. Might go long NDX tomorrow, via TQQQ.

Big Picture

In the big picture, I am bullish Gold Miners for the next couple of months.

I am bearish equities for the next few months.  I expect 1000-1100 on the SP 500.

Here is one important divergence:
http://tinyurl.com/cfnlcsu

Having said this, I am not going to stay short equities very much longer. I will cash out of my short sooner rather than later and wait for a bounce to short.

Also, when the market really falls, then I don't think Gold miners will survive.

I will be watching for this as $GDX nears old highs.

Update - Gold miners and SP

1. $SPXEW (or RSP) and $TRAN are suggesting more strength in the indices.

2 I think we make a lower low on the SP500 Monday or Tuesday, with positive breadth divergences.

3. This could be followed by a move to higher highs, possibly around 1500.

4. Subsequent to last update, I lowered NUGT cost to $14.8, and sold at 15.5 and at $16.25.

Now I legged back in at an average cost of $15.25 (full position).  Will try to lower cost to $14.9 or so.

I also sold SPXU at 40.5 and bought back at average cost of $38.65.  I plan to sell in the 42.5 - 43 zone.

Update

Long SPXU

Still long Chinese solars

Lightly long NUGT; looking to add very shortly

Stopped out of SOXL for a loss.

I think the bear market has started and that the target is around 1000 SPX.  First target around SPX 1390, possibly by October 29.

Good luck to all.

NUGT will be a good long around 14 to 15 range.  I will try to bring my average cost (right now 15.85) down.