Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Long TBT; Watch 800

1. Watch the Indices.  Might have to stop out of yesterday's trades if we break 800. 

2. Should I stop out?  Remember, my alternative thesis is that we might get 760-800 in the next couple of days, a double bottom.  

3.  In that case, I should probably just hold tight.  Given my trading restrictions on both accounts.

4. Open a Zecco account.

5. Buy a house first, before putting more money into trading.

6. File taxes.  Get refund.

7. Looking to go short Treasuries via TBT Call Options.  March 45s or 44s.

8.  TLT trend is down.  Today Equities will give us a down open, so TLT will open up.  Nice time to short.

9. Will TLT go down even if equities.

10. TLT target is $99.  TBT target $52 or so.  Even if equities start to fall?  Yes, unless Armageddon.

11. Unless equities completely collapse -- I.T. Wave 5 down comes now -- I don't think we will hit 600 in the next month.  I currently think Wave 5 will come in Feb-March-April.  So I should be out of this trade by Feb latest.

12. My stop is 760 SPX or TLT's daily Stochs turning UP.

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