Friday's action was also NOT conducive to the bull case for PMs. Also look at the TNX daily chart; in hindsight, its action over the past few days could be said to be flashing a warning.
I now believe that PMs may be headed down further, along with the general stock market. Accordingly, I will exit all PM longs on Monday. If I am wrong about this (20% chance), I will take my minor losses and be wrong. But based upon a number of factors -- Friday's action in all market sectors including PMs, TNX, etc., I believe that upside in PMs, in the ST at least, is limited. Gold could fall to 1100, Silver to $ 16.6 and SLV to $16.25.
Also, for the ES, this could be a test of the 1150 break out zone.
Added 4/18 at 9:23 p.m.
I think it is quite possible, however, that the downside in Gold will be limited to $1120 and Silver to 17.45 (SLV 17.1) (about 20 cents lower). There are rising trend lines meeting us there. At the very least, we should get a nice bounce there.
Accordingly, because I am bullish the stock market and PMs in the medium-term (1-2 months), and bullish PMs in the long-term (fundamentally so) I will start to leg back into PMs a few dollars down. I will also hold on to part of my position and not sell at a loss.
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