Win's Way: Update

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Update

Weird goings on.

1. Bearish death cross on the BVSP.

2. BSE looks like it could be about ready to top and drop hard. Lower RSI on the daily charts. Very close to all time high. Struggling here.

3. Copper, however, is stronger than it was at the May lows. This indicates some at least ST strength to come. However, there is a death cross forming in the Copper chart.

4. CRB is similar to BVSP. Death cross formed a while back. Now higher and hitting resistance at a falling 50 DMA. Bad news. Trouble in China?

5. Gold looks strong, but daily MACD is not looking strong.

6. PC ratio is oversold - daily and 5 DMA indicating possible ST bottom.

7. GLD:SPX ratio strong and indicating further strength.

8. Dow the most bullish of the indices. Not surprising. Strength now will come from the large caps.

9. Emerging markets to SPX looks very toppy. Suggests that SPX may be about to bottom or emerging markets may be about to top.

10. NDX daily could be bullish. Higher RSI low possible; MACD looks very constructive; 200 MA support very close below. However WEEKLY NDX is QUITE bearish. Looks ready to fall apart.

11. $NYA just formed a DEATH CROSS.

12. NYA 50R still has positive divergence.

13. Tomorrow night/Saturday is full moon.

14. NYHL still has positive divergence with May lows.

15. NYMO negative but not oversold.

16. NYA total volume super low over the past few days; indicating a TOP?? Summertime?

17. NYUD bottoming. RUT closed below the 200 DMA. Not close to a death cross. RUT not close to resistance, though. Long way to fall before May lows.

18. Friggin Shanghai looks constructive! Daily MACD is constructive! Daily RSI looking good.

19. TICK indicating lower lows to come in the short-term (tomorrow).

20. TNX breaking out below very important support?? MACD constructive. Daily RSI positive divergence.

21. Transports could be ST bottoming. Daily TRIN indicating bottom may be close. 5 DMA is quite oversold.

22. Like TNX, TYX looks constructive.

23. USD daily MACD looks very bearish, but ST bounce may be close. Rising 50 DMA is CLOSE!

24. FXI just hit the 200 (from below) and reversed. Also has a death cross.

25. GOOG has a death cross. Small bounce may be in order within a day or so. Bottom of a range. Then 420 target?

Conclusion - unsure. ST bounce to 1090 then drop to 950?

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Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way

Lessons

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Update

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