Buy America?

The following is a comment I recently made at bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com.

Something very interesting is happening on longer term /DX (dollar index) charts. Monthly MACD is making a bullish cross. Also, there is a strong, class 1, MACD divergence. A close look at a 20 year DX chart suggests strongly that the next LT (20 year) move will be a very strong up move. On the daily charts, we are at ST resistance, but a cup and handle continuation pattern should overcome this.

Unlike in the recent past, this /DX bullishness may not be bad for equities. As Brinkley has pointed out, very often currencies move in direct correlation with equities, of the same country. Jack (Springheel - channelsandpatterns.blogspot.c...), showed, in a recent post, how this positive correlation affects equities in the short-term.

To me, this suggests that longer-term, we are entering a buy America stage. I know that most of you Americans will think I am crazy for saying this, but charts don't lie. By "buy America," I don't mean buy American equities. I mean buy land or property in America, or buy the dollar. This makes sense to me on multiple levels, fundamental and technical.

Equities will probably stay in a bear market for another 1-3 years, but 2013/2014-2034 should be a super bull market in equities (akin to 1980 to 2000). The bull might even start 2012 onward, but I currently prefer the 2013-14 outlook. Regardless, we should get a major low in 2012, along with a DX high around 90. The equities observation is based upon a simple 100 year cycle analysis of major bull and bear markets.

If I am correct about this, the DX should hit 90 within a year or so (and probably much sooner). This may just happen by Spring 2012. I know that most on this blog are ST traders (as am I). However, most of us also buy and sell property and get fixed or variable interest loans. So this may be relevant.