July 17 - Apple Earnings and Outlook

-- Apple earnings will beat solidly thanks to Mac shipments.

-- Apple guidance consensus estimates are $1.24 for the next quarter. BMC Analyst Bachman expects that Apple will low ball guidance, give guidance of $1 or so, but achieve the $1.24 that is current expectations.

-- I think Apple will guide higher than $1, but maybe not as high as $1.24. The revenue from 1 million I Phones has to be recorded at some point.

-- There may be an initial sell off, which will be a nice buy point. I would keep some cash handy. I think the bear is done, so the market will rise. However, there is

-- Prior to earnings, if GOOG doesn't meet expectations, there will be multiple buy points tomorrow.

-- I would sell Apple August options on strength today (Thursday), purchase Apple options on any weakness on Thursday or Friday, sell them on Monday before earnings (in volatility), and buy back after earnings. More soon...

July 2 Trading

1. Israeli attack on Iran? USO calls look very good insurance. Besides Oil may go to $150 now, as we had forecast.

2. Consider SU Puts as a hedge against above.

3. OR - Long XLE/ short XLF trade. Long XLE now. OR Long USO.


Trading today:

1. AAPL will go up again, but may peak at 11 am and then come down a bit and rise again at close.

2. The short sell off will continue, and nothing will stop AAPL - people are catching on to the disruptive impact of I Phone 3G. At least for the next day or three, until this rally is over.

3. WATCH the SPX. SELL At 1310. Short XLF and DIA.

4. Long USO if you have any cash left.