Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, December 30, 2011

GOOG morning, would you like an AAPL?

I think Goog at 630 and AAPL at 390 or so will be good buys for 10% up moves within 1-3 months. We should see these prices around Jan 10. I will probably buy April or May calls and also go long in my IRA via TQQQ and TNA.

I think GOOG will go to 700 and AAPL to 440-480, depending upon Jan quarter earnings.

Some smaller equities will go up more but Goog and AAPL have very liquid options. FSLR and TSL may double.

I am saving money to buy around Jan 10.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Trade

I plan to go short /TF and SLV around ES 1265 (TF 750) and will pull all shorts by 1210-1220 (or DX 85.7 and VIX 28). I would be super happy to get that trade.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Getting Bullish? Sure, but bearish for 2 weeks

SPXEW suggesting further downside.

/DX will breakout soon. Going to 90.

Like SPXEW, TNX suggests further drop soon.

Jan 15 should be a nice low.

2012 will be good.

Chop in the next week, then up like a rocket.