Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Reminder - Plan

Short Silver
Long TBT
Stop out of part of SPX short.

SPX may go up for a bit (Nov 3?) or go down immediately. Not sure, so will put money where I am more sure.


Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Sold TZA for +8%; GBPUSD update; ZSL, TBT Update

Will try to buy TBT tomorrow around $32.5 or 33. Expecting more weakness tomorrow (Thursday). (1 week trade). November 3 sell.

Will try to buy more ZSL at SLV 23.5. (2-3 day trade?).

/DX will ST top tomorrow or Friday, then fall until November 3.

Covered earlier GBPUSD short at 1.572. Short again GBPUSD at 1.5785, target 1.56.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

TBT Long trade - buy 33.0 sell 37

Will probably take this trade. 1-2 week trade.

Edited from 33.5 to 33. May even go to 32.5 or so before up move, but I think 33 will be it.

After I get out of the TZA and BGZ trades, I am going to try to trade SLV and TBT exclusively for the next few weeks.

Week ahead: Weds up, Thursday up then down. Friday down. 1145 bottom.

Next week up until November 3 sell the news.

Monday, October 18, 2010

LONG TZA at ES 1178; Short GBPUSD at 1.589

LT Account
Long BGZ at /ES 1130 (60% of position) and TZA at /ES 1178 (40% of position) in LT account.

ST Account
Short GBPUSD at 1.589. First target 1.56.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Sold 1/3 BGZ yesterday at ES 1129; re-bought at ES 1145 just now

Now short SPX (via BGZ)at an average price ES 1130, SPX 1134. Plan to cover around ES 1107.

Getting killed on the EURO short but still holding a small position.