Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Outlook

1. Hammer on the 10 year note:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71267183058&a=235052232

2. At all time lows (December 2008) on the weekly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p44608524031&a=234623991

3. Hong Kong (HSI) at 38.2 retrace of entire bull market and good support. HSI is a leading indicator, IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HSI&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p68835916138&a=241970015

4. SSEC shows positive divergence with SPX.

5. /ES bounced off 61.8% retrace of 1100 - 1206 move.

6. $COMP at double bottom levels.

I think possible bounce hereabouts - to SPX 1220-1250.

Then, in September, a lower a low in equities and a higher low in bonds and HSI. Similar to October 2008 - March 2009 divergences.

If not, double bottom around 1090-1100 and bounce to 1190-1200.

Just my 2 c.

New Trades

Bought TZA at 47

Sold TZA 52.5

Bought TQQQ at 57.31 (/NQ 2094) - This is probably a ST trade, but not sure.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

This is how I'm playing it

/NQ goes to 2260.

/ES to 1220-1225.

DNDN to 20.3 (about 90% gains from here). First stop 16.40.

Edit: Reconsidering DNDN now.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Lessons from this crash

1. Rely on my own analysis.

2. Meditate.

3. Be comfortable with not doing anything.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Hi there! Having fun yet?!

I think the fed will wait out the panic tomorrow. Then when things have stabilized (next Tuesday?), and the bounce has started, the Fed will kick in with news about QE 3. That's when it will be most effective.

Tomorrow we see 1180 or so on the /ES.

Then over the next 30 days, we're going to get a monster bounce. Within a month or so, we'll be at 1320 or so on the ES. Then we drop. And wait and see.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

ST ES (S&P E-mini) Roadmap

1264 (today/tomorrow August 2/3) -
1280 (tomorrow/Thursday)-
1220 (August 15) -
1250 (August 30) -
1150 (September 15).