Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, December 28, 2012

WTF is up?


Bearish
1. QQQ weekly has been hugging the underside of the middle Bollinger. MACD has a huge negative divergence and about to go below zero. 

2. Bullish Percent for NYA shows huge negative divergence on weekly, monthly charts.

3. VIX is staying above the upper Bollinger.

4. SOX daily bust through the middle Bollinger and is headed for at least the lower BB.

5. Rising wedge pattern on SPX.

Bullish

1. AAPL is fundamentally cheap. Value investors should be buying right now.

2. NIKKEI is breaking out of a LT chart. May need a bit of a correction, though.

3. $RUT daily is at the middle Bollinger and at support. Dow and SPX daily very close to lower BB. QQQ just below daily BB. At least a small bounce looks probable.

4. Something should happen over the weekend to help with the fiscal cliff.

5. TLT hitting 50 DMA from the underside. Should mean at least a temporary set back.

6. $HGX - housing -- breaking out with inverse H&S. Looks very bullish.

7. AAPL daily could be at double bottom with big MACD divergence.

Conclusions:

I am bearish medium term and will trade accordingly. I will accumulate AAPL on the dips. Seems fundamentally wrong to have AAPL in the low to mid 400s, but it could happen.

Trades:
-- As planned, I sold DUST and went long NUGT today at $10.10.
-- Also, I bought SOXS.


Thursday, December 27, 2012

DUST, NUGT, STP, SCTY, TZA

1. Will try to sell STP around 1.52 - 1.55

2. GDX wants to rise. Will try to sell DUST around 34.5.  Sold part position at 37.5.
Will look to go long NUGT around 10, part position.

3. Looking to go long AGQ around SILVER at 29.

4. Will try to sell SCTY (bought at 10.6) at 11.6 or so.

5. Long TZA at 14.05.  May add at 13.9 or so. Will probably sell around 15.

6. Will go long AAPL or TQQQ in the next few days. Waiting for signal.

All trades are swing trades, unless stopped out.


Friday, December 21, 2012

Have Been Long DUST from 32, STP from 1.0

Sorry about the lack of updates.

Will sell DUST around 40.

Also long SCTY, STP.

Will try to go long TQQQ at around 50.5.

There is more upside in equities after pull back.