Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Week of 10/26

New Post. Let's try this again.

Silver has broken out from TL, along with Gold and GDX. This is a strong break, including on the weekly chart. I would expect a little consolidation then shoot up.

Will sell some longs at $18.10 and try to buy more around $17.8- 17.9. If Gold hits 1600, as I expect it will, silver target could be $29 or so based upon a Gold:Silver ratio of 55.

A few warnings:

The most important chart to watch here is the DXY, which has not broken its TL and has intact bounced strongly off an up sloping TL.

This strength in GDX, GLD, SLV was all because of the dropping dollar. So if there is to be more strength in the metals, it would be nice to see DXY pause or break that TL to the downside.

Also, SPX is breaking out (the leaders already have). It's rare to see the metals rise with SPX and the dollar.

Conclusion: Don't go over crazy on SLV longs just yet. Expect consolidation of breakout at the least. Silver should bounce in the 17.85 to 18.45 (50% retrace of the drop) range