Happy New Year

Current View:

Market may fall to 820 or so, but will rise in the new year until about 950- 1050, which will be a nice time to go short. If the market does go down to 820, it will be a nice time to go long.

Keep meditating!

Party!!!

Long QID as of this morning at 9:50 a.m. Am looking to SPX to come close to 1200 to 1210 today or Monday, when I plan to go long. I think we will get a 38.2% or probably 50% retrace this mega move up (1135 to 1265), but we are now in either an intermediate term (1-2 month) bear market rally or the start of a bull market. A 50% retrace of yesterday and today's move would put us at 1200, which has been a previous bottom, which is my bet for the end of this move down.

July 17 - Apple Earnings and Outlook

-- Apple earnings will beat solidly thanks to Mac shipments.

-- Apple guidance consensus estimates are $1.24 for the next quarter. BMC Analyst Bachman expects that Apple will low ball guidance, give guidance of $1 or so, but achieve the $1.24 that is current expectations.

-- I think Apple will guide higher than $1, but maybe not as high as $1.24. The revenue from 1 million I Phones has to be recorded at some point.

-- There may be an initial sell off, which will be a nice buy point. I would keep some cash handy. I think the bear is done, so the market will rise. However, there is

-- Prior to earnings, if GOOG doesn't meet expectations, there will be multiple buy points tomorrow.

-- I would sell Apple August options on strength today (Thursday), purchase Apple options on any weakness on Thursday or Friday, sell them on Monday before earnings (in volatility), and buy back after earnings. More soon...

July 2 Trading

1. Israeli attack on Iran? USO calls look very good insurance. Besides Oil may go to $150 now, as we had forecast.

2. Consider SU Puts as a hedge against above.

3. OR - Long XLE/ short XLF trade. Long XLE now. OR Long USO.


Trading today:

1. AAPL will go up again, but may peak at 11 am and then come down a bit and rise again at close.

2. The short sell off will continue, and nothing will stop AAPL - people are catching on to the disruptive impact of I Phone 3G. At least for the next day or three, until this rally is over.

3. WATCH the SPX. SELL At 1310. Short XLF and DIA.

4. Long USO if you have any cash left.

Oil - Rocket Rise this Week?

if Oil is headed to 160, can the market rise? Can we even get a real short-term rally? If Oil keeps rising this week to meet MS target of $150 by July 4, how can we get the ST SP rally to 1305?

One possibility I see is for a rocket rise to $150-160; the last pop of the bubble, accompanied by new lows in the indexes. Then we can go up.

Zach Bass's plan

This is from Zach Bass' latest article:

"So, what’s the outlook for investors. Well, next week, as I suggested, there will likely be a bounce from oversold conditions in the markets. If the bounce is weak, it will present a good opportunity to take short positions. If it is strong, then we’ll need to wait and see, as a retraction may not be immediate. Soon after the market has retracted from the bounce, I would expect the VIX to breakout, and the Put-Call ratio to spike. As the VIX crosses 30 and nears past highs, and the Put-Call ratio clears 1.50, cover those shorts and go long. At that point we should be near a bottom. Then ride this puppy into Labor Day, and at that time, Apple can take the winners podium and collect its gold!"

www.zacharybass.com

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

1. Predicting stock movement - thinking through everything.
2. Fundamental analysis and long-term trend analysis.

Weaknesses

1. I can't use stops for Swing trades. So I should only VERY RARELY swing trade.

So far, I've been successful mostly at intermediate-term call options (3-5 months out), and with long-term predictions. Swing trading, because of the Stop requirements, doesn't work for me. I don't like to follow stocks every day and cut losses as they go down. Not my style. I am good or can be good at analyzing sentiment, fundamentals and technicals carefully, deciding what will happen, and going long or short for a while.

2. Emotional attachment to AAPL.

Great company, but sometimes a bad stock - like any other. Don't let it become more than 30% of your holdings. Recognize your weakness.

June 30 - July 4 plan - Prelim

Preliminary thoughts -

1. Tech seems like it may be trending down for the next week or so; sell some Qs on the Monday rally and buy commodities. Oil crossing 140 means it is going to at least 150 or perhaps even 160.

2. Apple may rise to $175 - 180 on Monday or Tuesday on China news or an upgrade. If so, sell 2 calls on Monday highs and 4-6 more on Tuesday.

3. Sell BIDU on Tuesday.

4. On Tuesday or Wednesday go short Tech for a swing trade/hedge. (Use QIDs).

5. I Phone 3 G released July 11. Friday is July 4. I expect Tech to bottom again that Friday. Buy back then.

Oil is going to 115.

1. Change of mind. Oil is going down. Buy SU Puts.

2. Apple is going to $200+ soon. Buy July calls. Sell most of the Junes by Friday.

3. We're going up into Options.

4. Buy Google; Buy GS.

5. Buy SPWR December calls when it's around $65-70.

Tracking Apple

1. The intra-day Apple plan is to buy the dips ahead of the conference and to sell all at 12:30-12:45. Risky plan.

2. That Barron's rumor is funny. If it had come from anyone else, I wouldn't have known what to believe. But Barron's is Barron's.

2 b. Eric Savitz excellent post just negated the rumor. Change plans - I want to keep a little Apple and buy the dips during the developer conference.

New Target for June 180s. Half out at $9.5. (Purchase price.)

3. LT I want to start buying October 190s at or around $180.


4. But mostly I want to stay in cash. Let's look at some others as we set sell targets on Apple calls. I want to be all out or mostly out of Apple before the Key note.

Oil's Wowie!

Well, that was a nice U-turn. About the only silver lining, from my selfish perspective, of the $10 jump in oil yesterday, is that there are others like me who were similarly fooled. Also, that I took some profits earlier.

BIG LESSON:
FILTER OUT THE NOISE. My initial target for WTIC was $122. I was going to sell my Puts until I read a transcript of some Money show on CNBC. All the pundits were sure Oil was going to keep falling. Yeah right.

I need to keep doing what I did this weekend. Read the best - the ones on my blog and perhaps the WSJ, and think uninterruptedly.

NOW:

1. Oil will go to $148.

2. Sell SU Puts on Monday and Tuesday. Buy SU Calls.

3. Buy DIA Puts - in stages.

4. Sell AAPL early Monday. Sit on cash. Wait and see.

5. Tech will lift us out of the funk.

6. Watch the IWM.

Oil shorts; DIA puts; etc.

Oil - Wondering if I should cash out a few of the SU Puts today. Oil seems headed to $112, but wondering if it's time for a short-term ... No. Buy more. We're just getting started.

1. Buy SU July 65s at $3.2 or better.

Apple will rise until next Monday or so.

2. Sell one Apple $180 at $12.7.
Buy one Apple $180 at $10.6 or better.

I think we'll get a rally today. Maybe I'll get rid of a few of my DIA puts early and reload later.

3. DIA Puts - sell early; buy later

Short Oil - short-term trade - started 5/22; reloaded 5/29

Long-term fundamentals aside, I am actually shorting oil, on a technical and fundamental basis, for a short-term swing trade. Tomorrow or Friday morning we might get a double top in WTIC: a nice little place to begin a short position.

Equities may rise for a week or so, and then follow oil. It's very interesting to watch the daily play-off between oil and equities with one eye to the summer ahead. Fundamentally, in the short-run, I believe both will go down; however, to a large extent they behave inversely, so the first part of the fall will be fun to watch.

Here's my bet: I think Oil will go first, equities will get a slight bump, and then follow. Oil and large caps will begin a recovery in the second half of the summer.

Shorting Oil

Blog Inactive

I am studying TA to fill holes in my trading.  Blog will be inactive for a while.  Please see links on the left - they are excellent.