ST Top Next Monday-Tuesday?

ST top may be coming. AAPL 530; SPX 1380 or so. Maybe next Monday-Tuesday. Max downside I see is 1320 SPX.

Correction SPX 1390 OR so.

EUR/USD is marching towards my target, which it should reach in the next few trading days. Also, AAPL will top at around 530, I think, and that is usually a top for the market. BKX has LT resistance in this area.

The problem with my thesis is that I'm still seeing breath in the market, so no sign of an intermediate term top -- these must be accompanied by serious divergences in NH. I'm seeing sector rotation -- some energy stocks are looking good now, at least for a few points.

Update

I think trading is very interesting this year and if we can get our heads out of the sand and look at charts in an unbiased manner, we can make a lot of money. Unfortunately, a majority of us will stay in the sand, so that the rest of us can make money. It's the nature of the game. Long AGQ, AG, TSL, JKS, MOBI, since Monday-Thursday. Sold MHR on Friday for a nice little gain. Will probably sell most longs this week and go long FAZ at 24 and change.

FAZ

Yes FAZ.

Will buy FAZ at $24.3 or so.

Still long silver. Also bought some Chinese solars.

Update

I am very long silver. Also long MOBI. Was long Chinese solars until last week and am looking for a base in the chinese solars to get long again. SPX is going to 1365 at least, before a break, and quite possibly 1380. If it goes to 1380+, then quite possibly the break will only re-test the 1340-1350 zone, which will then be support.

$BSE is going to break 20K by this fall, if not sooner. This is a bull market. Buy the dip. Everyone is waiting for SPX 1300 to buy the dip, and I think they might just have to keep waiting. 2011 gave us a lot of dip buying opportunities, so people think 2012 will be the same. It's called recency bias. But I think not. GL!

Small Correction Coming

May buy a couple of IWM Puts tomorrow.

Did not buy puts.

Monday-Wednesday

MOBI around $4.7 (Monday?)

MHR around $6.1 (Monday?)

TSL around $9.5-10

JKS around $8.8 - 9.2

Already loaded up on AG and AGQ.

IWM puts around RUT 825, if possible

Small Correction Coming

Should bottom around 808 on the TF. Correction -- 798 on TF.

May take a small short on Monday. IWM puts or FAZ calls would be a good way to make money. Buy Monday, Sell Wednesday?

TSL around 10, JKS around 8, MOBI 4.5, AG 18, AGQ 56, MHR 5.8 will be great buys.

Bigger correction around 1370-1380 SPX.

This is a bull market. We will reach over bought extremes, just as we reached oversold extremes in 2008-09. Many people (me included) bought the very oversold dips in 2008, looking for reversion to the mean. I still look for reversion to the mean, but only when I think we are range bound.

About a month ago (around ES 1270) I had pointed out that this was a bull, that it was dangerous to short it, that I may get short for a few points at 1320 but may not. Well, my impatient self chose to go short, and had to take a loss.

We will get a correction, but in a bull market, if our primary focus is going short, we will always lose money. After a dip (to 808 or so on /TF?), we should go up to the 840 TF range. Many stocks are targeting their 200 DMAs (from below) and will not stop until they hit them. And after that who knows? Many major central banks (including India's) are now in easing patterns. This easing may last another year, and this bull market as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see nominal all-time highs on the S&P by EOY 2012.

SP going to 1380

EURO going to 1.36 by end of Feb.

Buy, buy, buy the FD.

Some sort of dip on Monday/Tuesday likely.

I am long PIP, MOBI, TSL (big position), FSLR (till 60). Looking to go more long on Tuesday, probably just BGU.

Maybe 1350 Monday morning - 1325 Tuesday/Wednesday - 1380 by Feb 28.

TSL, TZA

TSL going a little south in the short-term. $7 - 7.50 or so.

TZA tops at /TF 811 or 812 tomorrow. Will try to buy TZA 19.6 or so.

Will sell some TSL, hopefully around 8 tomorrow.

Will re buy TSL at 7.