Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Oil's Wowie!

Well, that was a nice U-turn. About the only silver lining, from my selfish perspective, of the $10 jump in oil yesterday, is that there are others like me who were similarly fooled. Also, that I took some profits earlier.

BIG LESSON:
FILTER OUT THE NOISE. My initial target for WTIC was $122. I was going to sell my Puts until I read a transcript of some Money show on CNBC. All the pundits were sure Oil was going to keep falling. Yeah right.

I need to keep doing what I did this weekend. Read the best - the ones on my blog and perhaps the WSJ, and think uninterruptedly.

NOW:

1. Oil will go to $148.

2. Sell SU Puts on Monday and Tuesday. Buy SU Calls.

3. Buy DIA Puts - in stages.

4. Sell AAPL early Monday. Sit on cash. Wait and see.

5. Tech will lift us out of the funk.

6. Watch the IWM.

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