Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Outlook

1. RUT is at double resistance -- falling trend line (or parallel channel) and horizontal trendline.

2. 5 MA of all indices is bullish.

3. Thursday and Friday ending short squeeze has pushed indices up. EURO just got a boost as well.

4. Dollar is at or close to support.

5. RUT:SPX is bullish; indicating further strength to come, after possible pullback Monday-Tuesday.

6. SPX at top of channel as well.

7. 20 EMA of daily CCI on SPX (one of my favorite ST indicators) is bullish.

8. Shanghai appears to have bottomed for the short-term and so has Brazil.

9. TICK both intraday and daily are ST bullish.

10. Bonds (TNX and TYX)) indicate some ST bottoming action. Daily MACD in TYX is particularly constructive.

11. Daily VIX is bearish on a 5 MA chart. Buy signal.

12. 5 MA TRIN is overbought on SPX and the NDX. Indicating pullback is imminent.

Conclusion: Very short-term pull back then up to 1140 $SPX at least. Buy 1070 SPX. Start putting together long-term short list.

EUR-USD: 1.2150 - 1.199 - 1.2600

Will try to buy EURO at 1.199.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)