Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

SPX; EURUSD Update

1. TRIN quite oversold on a ST basis; also this is Opex week. Bounce soon? Daily slow Stochs on RUT are already below 30; Slow stochs on Bonds are at 70.

2. EURUSD may bounce soon (from 1.2600 - 1.27 to 1.300), but ultimately may go down to 1.245 or so (61.8% retrace of recent up move).

3. Strong dollar (weak Euro) will create headwinds for SPX. SPX down to 1060 then up to 1100 or so, then down to 1040?

4. Copper could easily fall 2.5% from here before support.

Conclusion: ST bounce likely but there is more to fall before support. Short with Euro Puts or BGZ.

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