Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

State of the Market Review

Inverse H&S in SPX not yet complete. Target is 1250.

AAPL looking bearish LT, bullish ST.

Banking stocks look bullish. Breakouts being tested now. FAS?

/DX is a temporary resistance, but I have a target of at least 80 within a month. Perhaps a drop to 77.2 before further rise?

PMs look like more consolidation/ fall necessary (esp in Silver).

So, correction takes another 2 weeks? Then rise to 1250. Should get a tradable bounce on Monday/Tuesday from 1185 to 1190 on the ES.

Then 1210 then 1168 on SPX.

Final wave up to 1240-1260 in March? Double top on the NAS which will lag.

Targets:

Wave 4 Path (# 1 - 3 below)
1. 11/13- 15 - SPX ST bottom around 1185-1190; DX ST top 78.7 to 79.2. ZSL 14.8 - 15.5. SLV 24.2.

2. 11/16 - 11/18 top at 1210. DX bottom at 77 - 77.4.
3. 11/25-30 or so - SPX bottoms 1170 or so. DX 80.3. ZSL 18. (SLV 22.5).

4. Wave 5. SPX rises to 1250 +.

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