Out of 3/5 of short position at ES 1290; Still long Silver
Case 1 30% probability
The bear case:
ES 1310 is very strong overhead horizontal resistance. Look at a 3 year weekly chart.
NDX was rejected at 38.1 retrace of entire 2000-2008 bear market. NDX and GOOG charts look tired; time for a break.
Dollar is charging, finally.
Rally is very long in the tooth.
Daily RSI on the NDX is indicating a negative divergence. SPX too, but NDX is more clear.
Earning season over - sell the news.
Case 2: 45% probability
The bull case:
However, equity PC data is indicating a ST BOTTOM.
We may be making a bull flag under major resistance.
And a LOT of people seem to be waiting to get long.
And this is a godawesome bull market.
This may be the last leg up before the pre-summer fall.
Case 3 25% probability
I think there is also a possibility we see 1315 then a fall.
Plan now? See reaction to employment report. Prepare to take a loss on the remaining short.
Plan now? See reaction to employment report. Prepare to take a loss on the remaining short.
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