Win's Way: Consolidation now; Intermediate top at 1370 feb 20 or March 4?

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Consolidation now; Intermediate top at 1370 feb 20 or March 4?

Why correction/consolidation now - well, we are over bought on the daily RSI with negative divergences on hourly RSI and MACD, there is a full moon coming up, and we are at or very close to significant resistance. 800 and then 820 is significant resistance on the RUT. On the SPX 1330 and 1340.

Why 1370. Well 1370 is a very significant prior intermediate top. 1374 is also the completion of an Inverse H and S. At 1374, the SPX would also complete a move that is exactly the same length as the October - November move (possibly Wave A of an A B C correction). The last statement does not mean I'm an EW-er. I'm not, but I respect the basic principles.

Any way, that and a few other individual equity charts I'm looking at. Correction/consolidation close. Intermediate-term top, no. Breadth is too strong for that at this point.

2 comments:

jonak said...: feb 3 is date according to vedic astrology; January 31, 2012 at 6:11 PM
Win said...: Jonak, could you please elaborate? Where can I read more about this? Also feb 3 is a date for a bottom, correct?; January 31, 2012 at 6:25 PM

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Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way

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Friday, January 27, 2012

Consolidation now; Intermediate top at 1370 feb 20 or March 4?

2 comments:

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