Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

My Views of Manipulation

"Manipulation" is a fact of life. The fed's policies in the past four years mirror its policies in the post WW2 era when they flooded the market with liquidity and kept rates down to help the economy recover. In the early 1950s, the Fed decided to let rates rise and stocks took off for a 20 year bull market. Such a move has started.

It is the Fed's job to intervene to provide liquidity in deflationary crises and to sap liquidity in inflationary times. That is in the Fed's charter, it is monetary policy, and it is reality. The fed has a dual mandate -- employment and inflation. And IMHO, over the past four years, in the face of extreme pressure, in spite of sometimes unhelpful fiscal policy, the Fed has done exactly what it should have.

And, IMHO, all Fed policy is reflected in charts. I, and many traders who have traded this rally more successfully than I, have been trading based on TA. Look at bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com for one example.

No comments: