More downside ahead, after a little upside

Signals are confusing.


Positives
Breadth was strong on the recent move up, and so far there has been no breadth divergence.  This is the biggest problem for the bear thesis.

$BSE rocketing up on the daily.

$SSEC may be making a double bottom.  But more downside certainly possible.

SPX, TRAN, $COMP all at or close to 50-day support.  BUT all 50-days are downward sloping.  All 200 days are upward sloping and some distance below.  Short-term support here.

$HGX made new highs - BUT on possibly negative RSI divergence.

VIX declining, just hit declining 20 DMA. No base building on VIX.  MACD suggesting more downside on VIX, upside on equities.

Negatives


Weekly MACD on all indices very bearish.


TNX, TLT, WMT, and SOX proclaiming danger immediately ahead.

TNX suggesting at least a double bottom somewhat further below.  Big negative divergence between TNX and SPX is never good.

However, in end July TLT may make a double top with RSI divergence and TNX a double bottom.  

Hang Seng, SPX suggesting bearish wedge.  However, Hang Seng at 20 and 50-DMA support, with positive MACD divergence, suggesting bounce to 200 day is quite possible.  Also, possibly to 20000 before the wedge breaks.

Conclusions

1. Danger Ahead.  Will sell longs and go short (long BGZ, DUST) on bounce, especially if I see negative breadth divergence.  Top should come around mid-late mid July.

2. Look for double bottom on $TNX with RSI divergence to go long.  Should come in late July-mid August period?