Win's Way: WTF is up?

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, December 28, 2012

WTF is up?

Bearish
1. QQQ weekly has been hugging the underside of the middle Bollinger. MACD has a huge negative divergence and about to go below zero.

2. Bullish Percent for NYA shows huge negative divergence on weekly, monthly charts.

3. VIX is staying above the upper Bollinger.

4. SOX daily bust through the middle Bollinger and is headed for at least the lower BB.

5. Rising wedge pattern on SPX.

Bullish

1. AAPL is fundamentally cheap. Value investors should be buying right now.

2. NIKKEI is breaking out of a LT chart. May need a bit of a correction, though.

3. $RUT daily is at the middle Bollinger and at support. Dow and SPX daily very close to lower BB. QQQ just below daily BB. At least a small bounce looks probable.

4. Something should happen over the weekend to help with the fiscal cliff.

5. TLT hitting 50 DMA from the underside. Should mean at least a temporary set back.

6. $HGX - housing -- breaking out with inverse H&S. Looks very bullish.

7. AAPL daily could be at double bottom with big MACD divergence.

Conclusions:

I am bearish medium term and will trade accordingly. I will accumulate AAPL on the dips. Seems fundamentally wrong to have AAPL in the low to mid 400s, but it could happen.

Trades:
-- As planned, I sold DUST and went long NUGT today at $10.10.
-- Also, I bought SOXS.

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Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way

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Friday, December 28, 2012

WTF is up?

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