Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Indecision Time

Everyone is getting chopped.

1. Either we are going up to 950 or down to 600.

2. A-D patterns may be bullish for the next month (if we are at a bottom) or bearish if we are not.  Hard to tell.

3. Banks were hugely oversold.  They dropped huge Tuesday (FAS down 40%), bounced huge yesterday (FAS up 37%), and retraced 68% of yesterday's move today (FAS down pretty big).  That is a bullish bottoming pattern.

4. NYMO is in indecision too.

5. Obama hope is a BIG FACTOR.

6. AD Volume 5 and  10 DMA looks BULLISH.

7. SPX and NAS 30 m Stochs pointed DOWN.  We may have another chance to go long tomorrow morning.  No need to buy complete position.

8. Buying ERX tonight.  

9. Looking to buy SSO calls tomorrow.

10. SPX, DOW and NAS daily MACD forming a BEARISH CROSS.

11. SPX, DOW and NAS daily STOCHS BEARISH.

12. 5 min TICK neutral.  DAILY TICK neutral.  5MA Daily TICK pointing UP.

13. TNX very bullish, but that may be just bonds - Geithner, China comment, US $ fall; for equities maybe not so bullish.

14. TRIN hovering at 1, but I interpret as BULLISH.

15. USD looking like it might be ready to turn,

16.  USD-XJY looking BULLISH.

17.  VIX may be ready to fall.  STOCHS look BEARISH for VIX.  BULLISH for equities.

18.  XJY hitting SOME resistance around 114.


19. Set Stops.

STOPS

FAS
DXO
SSO
ERX
QLD

Stop out of all at 800 SPX.

Add LAST bit of position when up move is confirmed.  ADD in strongest sector.

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