Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

2/10 - Nice Day today - and Future

1. Tomorrow maybe bullish -- maybe up to 836 - 840 before down.
2. 2-3 week view is Bearish.
3. 2-3 month view is Bearish.


- NY50R - 50 DMA shows negative divergence. This is bad medium-term.

- NY50R has crossed 5 DMA on the downside. This is bad

- NYUD 20 DMA is turning down and shows negative divergence.

- VIX trend change to up. Crossed 5 DMA, Stochs bullish cross. This is bad, medium term.

- We will likely go up to 836 or so tomorrow. It is important to use the high to buy back Feb Puts.

- Sell one or two March Puts around 825, early in the a.m., if at all possible. Buy back 3 Feb Puts. Don't worry about the near-term. We are going down.

- If you can't sell March Puts low, sell them high and immediately buy back Febs.

- You could sell the AZO, if necc.

- Set Limit orders for tomorrow, bef. you go to bed.


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