Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Monday Monday Morning

Essentially, my view for the week ahead is that we may get a final shake out 650 intermediate-term bottom on the indices, or we might not. I suspect that the multiple divergences are indicating just that, and longer-term buyers (Buffet, Grantham, etc. are stepping in, as retail 401Ks cash out. I think that we will have a lot of chop this week and my big rule is to NOT let go of a position* at a terrible price because it will probably come around for me to at least break even.

*As long as it is not a March Option

1. Lots of divergences in the market.

2. Bottom close at hand?

3. PUT-CALL RATIO SIGNALLING TOP!!!

3. Good to be in calls and puts. Or up and down trades of some sort. And get out quickly. Opportunities on both sides.

4. Any up, sell. Any down, buy.

5. Use 3 X ETFs.

6. Get out of March longs on Monday, if possible.

7. Feel free to buy April calls around 700.

8. 710-740/750 range for Monday-Tuesday? Short 750?

9. Collapse possible. Buy Puts. Buy inverse ETFs. Buy some SSO 17 Puts on Monday. Or find another good chart for Puts.

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