Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Dollar Long-term

USD may not go beyond 80. This wave up in the $ may well be a B wave in a massive, multi-year correction, to be followed by the final wave down in the $.

I'm not sure if a $ bull market has started.

Other than risk-aversion and the fact that some economies in the Euro zone (Greece) suck, why should some one put money into the dollar? The Europeans are trying to devalue the Euro and we're trying to devalue the dollar. Both of us have to devalue, in order to compete. The Euro zone will print less, probably, because they're more afraid of inflation.

JPY will begin another wave up now, along with the $, on risk aversion, but JPY will be the better buy.

Although they're pressing Prichet not to say anything about raising rates, despite inflation, Prichet is an inflation hawk.

GBP may raise rates in February. This could provide a nice bounce play if it gets too oversold verses the dollar -- in the upcoming move to safety.

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