Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

ST Outlook

Look at the volume pattern on a QQQQ 1-year daily chart, then on an ES daily 1-year chart. We are seeing volume that we haven't seen since March 2009. I don't think this is bullish.

At the end of a major down move, you will see big volume bars. Normal. It's a selling climax. Similarly, at the end of a major up move, big volume bars signify a buying climax.


ES:
Bottom at 1060-1070 ES. 50% (or thereabouts) retrace, then down to 1030-1040 ES.

Gold

Bottom at $1075 or so. This is a fall of about $150 from the top. 50% retrace is 1150. We should retrace to around $1135-1140 at least before any correction.

Silver

Silver fell from $19.57 to $16.07 (if the fall is over, as I assume it is). 50% retrace is $17.82 at least, but probably up to $18.30 or so (where it will meet a falling trend line) before correcting a little.

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