Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Consumer Confidence - How Important is It?


Very.

The 46 reading is the lowest since April 2009 and breaks -- by a 9 point margin -- the consensus expectations (of a 55 reading). January retail sales were also lower than expected, and at a lower pace than even last January.

Of course a lot of this could be attributed to the weather this year, but still. At the very least, this is a big red flag.

February numbers may be similar. The weather did not improve till the second half of the month.

Business profits, inventory rebuilds and exports can go only so far.

I will cover my EURUSD long at around 1.36 and wait and see.

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5 DMA MSEMX:SPX - bearish -1/1

5 DMA CBOE PC Ratio - bullish +2/2

10 DMA CBOE PC Ratio - bullish +2/2

5 DMA TNX - bullish, but barely. went through 5 DMA, at 20 DMA. +1/2

5DMA QQQQ:SPX - down; bearish -1

5DMA MA TRINQ - very bullish + 2

5 DMA TRIN - bullish

5 DMA USD index - bullish (bearish for equities) but toppy. -1

5 DMA SPX
5 DMA GLD -?? bearish?

5 DMA SLV

5 DMA USO bullish

IWM/SPX - dangerously bullish?

VST Bullish. Then bearish?

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