2. The EURUSD should rise to 13800 or so.
3. After that, I'm not sure about equities, but I will short the EURUSD. The European Union's problems somewhat serious. The problem is the cap on Debt to GDP is set at 3%, impossible for many member states. Overall, the idea of the Union itself is impossible, IMHO.
I am long the EURUSD from 1.3606 for a bounce. Stop is tight, at 1.356, because as of right now, this is a counter-trend trade. I am targeting 1.3700, but this may rise to 1.3850 to overcome ST oversold conditions. USD has a double top overhead resistance at 80.835. Trend change? Possible, but unlikely. I still think USD will rise to at least $82, which also jives with my feeling that we will see more downside on the ES. We should see an ES 1095 top, possibly on Monday. This fits with a moon cycle top on 2/14. So, in short, bounce in equities stalls at 1095 on the ES. Dollar stalls around $ 80.1 or $80.2.
After this bounce, USD should go up to 82 and the EUR/USD to a minimum of 1.3330 and possibly to 1.310 or so. Equities? Well, possible bottom around 1020 or 1030. I will look to enter long-term U.S. government bond shorts (leaps) if this happens (i.e. when the ES approaches 1020.
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